SRT4driver
Junior
We Are MILWAUKEE! And I'm all about accountability, unlike '5th Placer' Jeter apologists.
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Post by SRT4driver on Feb 9, 2023 23:28:56 GMT -6
As far as I can tell, Coach Lundy has NEVER played Bol and Rand together, not for one single minute of a game this season. Literally not once. They are both elite level blockers, and elite rim defenders in Rand's case. And two of our most efficient scorers (80% and 61% FG%), and good rebounders (Rand 4.7, Bol 2.5 average, in severely limited minutes). I could see Rand defending most opposing team's 4's if need be, which would make this possible. Tonight when Detroit was absolutely dominating us on the boards (+17 in the 2nd half alone!!) there were quite a few people in our section who were literally begging for Lundy to put them both in the game together. But nope, Lundy always subbed out one for the other, as he's done all year, and Detroit kept using their superior size to get inside for easy bucket after easy bucket, and rebound after rebound. I realize Coach Lundy has a very specific system that he is obviously very set in, which in this case deems Bol and Rand to be Centers only... but geez, it sure would have been extremely helpful tonight on so many Detroit possessions when Detroit was able to get about 3, 4 or 5 offensive rebounds in a row. Not to mention for a long stretch midway through the 2nd half when Rand had an extended period on the bench, and Detroit's size muscled us around inside for multiple easy scores, helping erase our lead. Does anyone see this happening with both Rand and Bol out there together? According to advanced stats and analytics, Rand & Bol are the 3rd and 4th most important and effective players on this team, and have the most positive impact on our team's chances of winning when they are on the court. Yet, they are COMBINED averaging just 27 minutes a game (Rand 17, Bol 10). This has increased to a combined 30.5 minutes in HL play, thankfully. See the player analytics at the bottom of this page: barttorvik.com/team.php?filter=all&year=2023&team=MilwaukeeJust some food for thought after a gritty tough win, that seemingly didn't need to be so hard in the 2nd half. I'd sure love to see Coach at least try playing both at some point this year!
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Post by ghostofpbj on Feb 9, 2023 23:41:44 GMT -6
I don’t think you can play both at the same time. The spacing wouldn’t be very good with both on the floor at once
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SRT4driver
Junior
We Are MILWAUKEE! And I'm all about accountability, unlike '5th Placer' Jeter apologists.
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Post by SRT4driver on Feb 9, 2023 23:45:10 GMT -6
I don’t think you can play both at the same time. The spacing wouldn’t be very good with both on the floor at once It hasn't even been tried in a game, though.
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Post by TBone on Feb 10, 2023 8:34:33 GMT -6
I think your third paragraph is the answer. Coach has a system. The offensive plays and system is based on a four guard system. This is perhaps the second game of the season where doing so would have potentially had an impact. Given the limited need for such a thing, adding that into practice and developing a modification to the offensive system seems to be unnecessary.
There will be times when you don't match up well against a team. And you hope that you can also exploit your own matchup advantages.
I, personally, would rather have one of the two of them on the court most of the game, rather than both of them on the court for half the court and off the court for the other half.
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SRT4driver
Junior
We Are MILWAUKEE! And I'm all about accountability, unlike '5th Placer' Jeter apologists.
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Post by SRT4driver on Feb 10, 2023 16:10:55 GMT -6
It's just painful and frustrating when you know that Rand could be helping us win, to see him on the bench the majority of every game. I mean, as of last night he's officially the greatest rim protector in Milwaukee's history, with 55 blocks (already!) this season, while averaging only 17 minutes a game. It's just hard to watch and wonder how many close losses might have been wins had he spent more time on the court. Especially with how many wins he's already saved with final-second blocks (IUPUI most recently). And that game-saving IUPUI block happened when he wasn't even supposed to be on the court for us! From the @iupui game thread: I love how Rand wasn't supposed to even be in the game when he made the game-sealing block w/8.9 seconds left, as Lundy had tried sending Johnson in for him at the 30 second mark, but it was too late for him to check in for Rand!
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Post by Petes on Feb 10, 2023 17:09:55 GMT -6
Offense would be dismal with both on the floor as neither have any ability to play outside of the paint. Secondly on defense it feels like diminishing returns as they are both so similar on defense. Rand is good on defense because he’s a shot blocker but now you will make him guard someone on the 3pt line instead because Moses is under the rim. Does rand really give us an advantage sticking him outside like that?
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Post by TBone on Feb 10, 2023 17:14:28 GMT -6
I agree that Rand - when he's ON - is a game changer. But there are (and have been) many games where Rand is unfortunately OFF, and in those games he's also a gamechanger but in the wrong direction. It feels like his playing time is given oddly. He seems to get about three minutes to show whether he's into the game. If so, he sees a lot more playing time. If not, he sits a lot more. But it's hard to get into a rhythm when you only play three minutes, then not again until late in the half.
Of course, these are just my casual observations, but I've been paying pretty close attention to him because I absolutely love his athleticism.
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SRT4driver
Junior
We Are MILWAUKEE! And I'm all about accountability, unlike '5th Placer' Jeter apologists.
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Post by SRT4driver on Feb 10, 2023 22:40:26 GMT -6
I agree that Rand's playing time has been given oddly. And me and others loving his athleticism is besides the point as far as this discussion goes. Because bottom line, both the Rand "lovers" and "dislikers" are entirely missing the point here.
Every single player is on and off at times. What doesn't lie is the numbers. And all of the numbers say that one of our top players, who's not only a HUGE +/- positive, but also a positive in every measurable way, is Rand (and also Bol... and possibly even Jalen Johnson).
Crazy to think that possibly 3 of the best 6 best players on this roster have barely seen the court this season due to outdated positional constraints. But hey, weirder things have absolutlely happened (see the last 5 years).
But maybe I'm wrong, and you might argue that all of the advanced stats are wrong, and that all of Rand's negatives negate all of his positives, and he isn't actually our 3rd best player? Because if that's true.... I *really* want to know what your system of measurement is!
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Post by Duct_Tape_Pounce on Feb 10, 2023 23:48:26 GMT -6
When Rand plays to his potential, he is a huge asset, but I think it’s important to remember he gave Mercy 4 free points yesterday (unnecessary flagrant foul and technical foul) and he gave Green Bay 2 free points on Monday (difference in the game). These mental lapses can be the difference in a close game (and was the difference in a game). I think that helps explain his erratic playing time.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2023 9:28:46 GMT -6
At some point, even if just for something like a baseball shift for a few minutes of the game, I'd like to see what the Two Towers could do to a Horizon opponent's inside game. I think we may have a secret weapon there and not even realize it (we've never even tried to put Bol and Rand on the floor together- not once). Ultimately, I don't care as long as we win. But the refusal to let those 2 share the court is a little odd to me. Those 2 and any of our 3 guards would move up and down the court fine; we aren't the late 80's Loyola-Marymount. Also, imo Jalen Johnson needs to get mad in the post and stop letting the game come to him. Green Bay reminded us that you need every single minute to be an effective one.
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Post by TBone on Feb 11, 2023 12:05:26 GMT -6
I agree that Rand's playing time has been given oddly. And me and many others loving his athleticism is besides the point as far as this discussion goes. Because bottom line, both the Rand "lovers" and "dislikers" are entirely missing the point here. Every single player is on and off at times. What doesn't lie is the numbers. And all of the numbers say that one of our top players, who's not only a HUGE +/- positive, but also a positive in every measurable way, is Rand (and also Bol... and possibly even Jalen Johnson). Crazy to think that possibly 3 of the best 6 best players on this roster have barely seen the court this season due to outdated positional constraints. But hey, weirder things have absolutlely happened (see the last 5 years). But maybe I'm wrong, and you might argue that all of the advanced stats are wrong, and that all of Rand's negatives negate all of his positives, and he isn't actually our 3rd best player? Because if that's true.... I *really* want to know what your system of measurement is! Numbers don't lie, but they can be manipulated in a manner that leads people to incorrect conclusions. They can help tell of a players' efficiency, but they don't necessarily tell of the players' impact on the team's ability to win overall. A starting pitcher's win total can be a hugely misleading statistic. If a pitcher gives up two runs per 9 innings, but the team's offense scores one run per game, that pitcher's loss total is going to give an impression of a pitcher that's far worse than the player deserves. You have to look at a combination of statistics (W along with ERA perhaps) and sometimes, there are non-statistical factors that come into play. +/- in itself, in terms of basketball statistics is not a true +/-. In hockey, +/- is how many goals the team scores while you're on the ice, minus the number of goals you surrender. In basketball, at least according to sports-reference.com, it's an estimation of the points per 100 possessions, a player contributes (or surrenders) vs a league average player. In this respect, it's similar to WAR in baseball terms, though baseball is a sport far more reliant on individual talents making WAR a far more valuable statistic in that sport. Rand, Bol, BJ, KP, and Zach Howell are our top five players according to overall +/-. However, Rand's Offensive +/- is .4, Bol's is -1.7, BJ's is 1.3, KP is .8 and Zach's is -1.6. Overall, that equates to an offensive -.8. Defensive +/- is far better for this group, resulting in a number that's over 6, but as you can see - this sacrifices a great deal offensively. This doesn't even factor in matchups or finding the best situation for a player. (Jalen, BTW, is overall, -.5) You claim that 3 of the best 6 players on the roster have "barely seen the court" though I think you meant to say they're rarely on the court at the same time. If you're talking about Rand, Bol and Jalen - based on their overall +/- numbers - I'll argue that Bol and Jalen are not one of the three best players on the team. And there's no way I want to see more of Howell over Markeith, JT or EJ - even though his +/- is higher than all three of the others. You cite outdated positional constraints, but again, we have no point guard in the situation where our top five +/- players are playing at a given time. Would you rather we play with two centers and no point guard? I'd argue that's a potential recipe for disaster. An interesting side note: Antoine Davis has a +/- of 3.6, (lower than Rand's) and Detroit is 10-16. You could take a look at a different advanced statistic: win shares percentage, and you'll get a completely different "rating" of the players than +/-. (Howell falls far behind Markeith, JT and EJ in that statistic) But again, looking at only that is no way to predicate what five players should be on the court at any given time such that it gives the team the best chance to win. Advanced stats aren't wrong. No stats are wrong. It's the way we interpret them, occasionally overly rely on them, and don't factor in non-statistical factors that can lead to incorrect assumptions.
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Post by ghostofdylan on Feb 11, 2023 12:18:19 GMT -6
I LOVE this board!!!
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SRT4driver
Junior
We Are MILWAUKEE! And I'm all about accountability, unlike '5th Placer' Jeter apologists.
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Post by SRT4driver on Feb 11, 2023 12:26:33 GMT -6
I agree that +/- really doesn't give an accurate assessment, that's why there are advanced stats. And they say (in fact are screaming!) that when Rand, Bol, and Johnson are actually allowed to see the court, they are this team's 3rd, 4th, and now 5th (not sixth) best players. And idk how me pointing out that coach choosing/forcing them to all share one position - and that one single position's playing time - might be a mistake, and worth rethinking, is somehow "manipulating the numbers in a manner that leads people to incorrect conclusions", or an "incorrect assumption". LOL. For those with an open mind, see the bottom of this page for the evidence showing who this team's 3rd, 4th, and 5th most effective players are over the entirety of this season based on all stats (not just the ones they like, or want to see). barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Milwaukee&year=2023
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Post by FTA1982 on Feb 11, 2023 12:35:32 GMT -6
I've watched enough of Jalen Johnson to know he isn't one of our better players. He has limited athletic ability, barely rebounds for a big and can't pass out of double teams. There was a reason he was at Alabama A&M prevously. He would've been a better player in the 90s when non athletic bigs were frequently used on the block.
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SRT4driver
Junior
We Are MILWAUKEE! And I'm all about accountability, unlike '5th Placer' Jeter apologists.
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Post by SRT4driver on Feb 11, 2023 12:45:05 GMT -6
Anyways - for less than one year together, I think we have a really, really good team AND head coach and staff! And I want to see them become a great team
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