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Post by BBFran on Jan 16, 2018 15:36:36 GMT -6
When I started the other thread I thought I was being overly conservative by suggesting that we might only go 4-1 against the five terrible teams we just played. Going 1-4 against that sorry lot is probably the worst 5 game stretch since Ric Cobb was coach. It's difficult to adequately characterize how bad those teams are.
Again, not knocking the players, who should be commended for their effort. You can see the frustration mounting, but they are still playing hard. The coaching, OTOH, is an unknown at this point. As others have noted the team has obviously regressed. The constant changes to the lineup are a clear sign that Coach Baldwin doesn't have a firm grasp on the team yet. The tendency of the team to drift into an ugly, undisciplined running style when the other team plays that way is a bigger concern. That's a recipe for playing down to your opponents' level even when you have better personnel. It's never surprising to see an inexperienced head coach struggle early in his head coaching career, particularly in conference play. So let's not kid ourselves -- our AD's grand plan to blow up the program and achieve "success" has turned into a LONG term rebuilding exercise. I remain hopeful that Coach Baldwin can learn on the job and eventually prove himself, but as of now there's no basis to come to any conclusions about him as a hire. He's the coach, and I suspect he will be for at least the next three years, so I support him. I wish I could believe that the University administration would.
Meanwhile, as I noted in my initial post in the other thread, the real harm from bad results on the five game road swing (and I was thinking two losses, sigh) would manifest itself in how it would affect near-term program and fan support. We are about to play, by far, our two most attractive home games of the year against NKU and WSU, the two best teams in the league right now.
As recently as two years ago these games would draw thousands of people to the Arena. The weather is supposed to be clear and mild. As far as I know, there are no competing home games from Marquette or the Bucks on either day. And again, the best two home opponents this year.
Would anyone put serious money down that there will be more than 800 actual fans in the stands for either game?
"Not with a bang but a whimper."
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Post by steveisback on Jan 16, 2018 15:47:26 GMT -6
Not me...I will take the under on that one
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Post by Cactus Panther on Jan 16, 2018 16:25:08 GMT -6
Our memories seem to fade. We do not have to go back to the Ric Cobb era to find such a bad stretch of games.
I would put the four game losing streak in February of 2014, culminating with a 20 point home loss to then 0-14 UIC, as being worse than the recent five game road trip. Fan interest was quite deflated then also, and there was a lot of bickering about the team's style of play and coaching deficiencies by a VETERAN coaching staff (I posted a link to the thread from that game in two recent threads). The announced attendance at the Round 1 HL tournament game against UDM at the Arena was only 1,204, and that was before the APR ban and AB's antics.
As a pointed out in the GB game thread, Fran, this decline has been going on for more than a decade.
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Post by BBFran on Jan 16, 2018 16:53:14 GMT -6
Ah, the power of subjective impression. Fact free analysis. (I believe this also explains much of the miserable state of leadership in our country right now, but I digress.)
Fortunately, there are objective measures. Kenpom is the Rolls-Royce of basketball analytics. The four games in '14 that you mentioned were against teams rated 163, 186, 85 and 275 (UIC). The four games we just lost? Unimaginably, those teams are rated 315, 280, 230 and 304! On the AVERAGE, over 100 spots lower! THREE of those teams were rated worse than that awful UIC tam in '14! It's the difference between playing a solid mid-major and an execrable low major.
And, that aside, perhaps one of our board historians can chime in here. It seems to me that something happened just before that four game losing stretch in '14. Now gosh -- what was it? And could it have some relationship with the quote at the bottom of my post?
By the way, thanks to great coaching and the strength of character of the players, something also happened immediately following that four game stretch in '14. I remember it vividly.
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Post by steveisback on Jan 16, 2018 16:58:35 GMT -6
Might it have had something to do with Jordan Aaron by chance? Amanda is a real humanitarian
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Post by Cactus Panther on Jan 16, 2018 18:15:24 GMT -6
Regardless the reasons and excuses, we cannot deny the sudden rise of the program in the first few years of this century and the gradual decline ever since. A thick book entitled "Opportunity Lost" could be written about the history of this program.
I agree with many of the negative comments that have often been expressed on this board about our current athletic director and the continuing support of her by the administration. But the program's current state of affairs runs much, much deeper than that. Cultural change within the administration and athletic department is something all of us would like to see. The highest level of administration would need to be motivated to make it happen. Do you see it happening anytime soon? I hope it does, but see no indication that it will.
That leaves us with being fans of the Panthers, with all of the nicks and blemishes that come with it.
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Post by Cactus Panther on Jan 16, 2018 18:15:55 GMT -6
You want facts? We had an 11 year relatively high paid coach (among HL coaches) who was barely .500 against D1 competition in his last 10 years despite entering the program when it was at it's all time high. When After that coach departed three veteran starters left the program because of the coaching change leaving his replacement with some of the least experienced players in all of D1. That coach left after one year, more than two months into the offseason, for his alma mater in the Big East. That required another replacement who had to assemble a coaching staff in July. These are facts that I subjectively opine have as much as to do with the recent results of our undermanned team as much as any other.
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Post by Pantherholic on Jan 16, 2018 20:05:42 GMT -6
As a pointed out in the GB game thread, Fran, this decline has been going on for more than a decade. Attendance has been declining since either the ‘11-12 season or ‘12-13 season. The only uptick season was returning to the arena from the KC. The two largest year-over-year declines were going back to KC and after firing Jeter. |
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Post by BBFran on Jan 16, 2018 20:40:53 GMT -6
I love the way you put that, John. Three veteran starters "left" the team. Like it was on them. That's funny stuff.
Here's the thing, as long as the architect of the tear-down remains in position to sabotage the program, nothing has changed. We exist under a bad moon, a dark cloud. Absolutely nothing has been improved. On the contrary, the program, the fan interest, everything -- is spiraling predictably downward. Now some here want to pretend that what happened two and three and five years ago is over. It's not. As long as that dark cloud hovers over us, those predations are as real as the day they happened. As Faulkner said, the past isn't dead -- it's not even past.
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Post by Cactus Panther on Jan 16, 2018 21:25:14 GMT -6
I love the way you put that, John. Three veteran starters "left" the team. Like it was on them. That's funny stuff. All three did leave the team with one year of eligibility remaining. It was their prerogative. A lot of players transfer to other schools as a result of a coaching change. I do not blame them. I do not know what your point is or why it is funny stuff. It is just a fact. |
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fan
Sophomore
Don't shoot so much Tone.
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Post by fan on Jan 17, 2018 0:20:37 GMT -6
I love the way you put that, John. Three veteran starters "left" the team. Like it was on them. That's funny stuff. All three did leave the team with one year of eligibility remaining. It was their prerogative. A lot of players transfer to other schools as a result of a coaching change. I do not blame them. I do not know what your point is or why it is funny stuff. It is just a fact. You don't think having a postseason opportunity stolen away from them by the AD had something to do with it? It's not fair to say "left" when there were so many choices made by the program that actively drove the players away. Removing Jeter was what happened in the end, perhaps the apparent goal. Review what led to that. |
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Post by Cactus Panther on Jan 17, 2018 7:55:50 GMT -6
Fair enough, I edited my comment in the post to address your concern by crossing out a few words. My point remains the same.
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Post by theDarkHawkReturns on Jan 17, 2018 8:59:47 GMT -6
All of this discussion is pointless....you guys do realize that, right? Mone doesn't care. He is working on a spreadsheet someplace right now and probably doesn't even know it is basketball season. Even if he did look up from Excel long enough to check the scores and standings, he would not lift a finger because everyone involved is part of a "protected class" and cannot be touched.
Laugh if you like, but you need to accept that this is just the truth, ESPECIALLY in a University environment. Professors who are in "protected classes" can go on television and make the most offensive, potentially libelous, statements and they are patted on the head and keep their jobs. Do you really think that is just an accident? Come on....
So why do you harbor ANY hope that a "protected class" AD would EVER be terminated for "performance"? She won't. The only way we see her leave is if someone offers her a better gig (yeah, THAT will happen), she retires, or she moves on to the spirit plane many many years from now.
Then they will name a building after her.
Too many of you are trying too hard to keep this thing alive. You are like abused spouses....making excuse after excuse about the behavior of your abuser, finding the most ridiculous reasons to stay, and continue to take the abuse.
It's time to pack up and leave. You do not need to take this. You are not obligated to accept constant abuse. You have value and worth as a person, and deserve to be with a program that values you for the fans you are.
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Post by steveisback on Jan 17, 2018 9:10:09 GMT -6
Does not seem like Koonce and Costello were "protected"....Geiger either but that is a whole other surreal matter
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Post by steveisback on Jan 17, 2018 9:16:44 GMT -6
In all fairness have to take Fran to task a bit on the whole "fact analysis" thing which seemed a bit self righteous. That is fine and I get it but with facts also comes the whole issue of which facts are used, are they complete, are causal relationships drawn to justify a position without all the facts in play. Ok, the RPI rankings of opponents averaged 100 pts less but the whole thing in this case is relativity. I have a feeling if checked the facts that UWM's RPI ranking was also quite a bit higher back then vs now so in comparison the relative disappointment was just as great if not more back then as our RPI then was better and more expected hence more disappoint than the recent streak. Guess I am behaving like an abused spouse per Nigthhawk but I just can't quit them. Does feel masochistic at times but will not quit the Panthers although have scaled back attending and donating due to Ms Braun
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