SRT4driver
Junior
We Are MILWAUKEE! And I'm all about accountability, unlike '5th Placer' Jeter apologists.
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Post by SRT4driver on Nov 30, 2017 1:27:23 GMT -6
A team's RPI rating doesn't start to mean much until mid January, but *conference* RPI is basically set in stone by late December, when almost all non-conference play is over. Once conference play begins, teams simply trade "RPI points" with each other inside their own conference, and do not affect their conference's strength. Well, nearing the halfway point of the non-conf schedule, it appears our worst fears have been realized - the "new" Horizon League is not only a low-major conference, but about as low as you can go. 29th of 32 in D1 (!!!) The Summit League is currently *19* places better than the HL. And in our historically bad year, it also appears to be a historically good year for the Valley, possibly better than when they qualified 4/10 teams for the NCAA tournament, with Valpo and Loyola both being significant contributors to that. Horizon RPI entering 11/30/17 MKE 78 NKU 99 OAK 133 DET 228 WSU 234 IUPUI 295 UIC 313 CSU 320 GB 327 YSU 348 warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/conferencerpiTo add to the sting, I'm watching the 6-0 UNLV @ 5-2 UNI (both losses to top 10 teams) game replay on WatchESPN from earlier tonight. Late in the 1st half the announcers start gushing about Jordan Johnson, who's already dished at least one sick AF "NBA all-star PG"-type assist in traffic for an easy layup. After Jordy makes a 3 with the shot clock running down at 5:48 left of the 1st, the color guy says: "Johnson... can PLAY. I called his games in the Summit League when he played for Milwaukee - had a triple double one game." Welp. At least he called us Milwaukee? Unlike tonight's NIU announcer who called us "UW" for most of the game. And at least MKE's being mistaken as a member of a league that's currently 19 spots ahead of the HL in conference RPI? Lol Tl;dr - Historically, conference RPI standings solidify by early December, and are impossible to change once all non-conference games are played. The HL appears to be by far the worst it's ever been in it's existence, currently at 29th. Thanks for the IUPUI addition, guys. |
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Post by ghostofdylan on Nov 30, 2017 6:07:36 GMT -6
The problem is that our presidents and chancellors (and even certain athletics directors) don't care enough about men's basketball to make the one move needed to trigger real change. So instead we're all left looking for a lifeboat off the sinking ship. For the record, through Wednesday's games we're a collective 21-33 vs. D-1 teams.
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Post by ghostofdylan on Nov 30, 2017 8:57:48 GMT -6
For comparison's sake, after last night's MVC/Mountain West Challenge games, the MVC stands at 39-20.
With the H League struggling so mightily, it's only natural to inquire what exactly the top 3 league finish that our intrepid athletics director covets really means. If not followed by a conference tournament title, guess where we're going?
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Post by theDarkHawkReturns on Nov 30, 2017 9:26:18 GMT -6
That number may actually drop in the coming weeks. UW-Milwaukee (yes, I did that on purpose...we don't deserve to drop the hyphen at this point) plays a steady stream of low ranked RPI teams, and if they do not win every one of those games, the current 78 (really???) will crater into the hundreds. As low as the Horizon "League" is, it is artificially propped up by UW-Milwaukee's 78 ranking.
I did the math (admittedly, this is all conjecture) and if UW-Milwaukee drops to the mid to low 100's (which is not that unrealistic), The Horizon drops below the Big South into second from last. That assumes a ton, but that isn't my point. My point is more that the inflated UW-Milwaukee RPI is actually distorting the Horizon RPI and that will eventually come back to the mean. Not good.
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Post by theDarkHawkReturns on Nov 30, 2017 9:28:09 GMT -6
For comparison's sake, after last night's MVC/Mountain West Challenge games the MVC stands at 39-20. With the H League struggling so mightily, it's only natural to inquire what exactly the top 3 league finish that our intrepid athletics director covets really means. If not followed by a conference tournament title, guess where we're going? To one of those tournaments she turned her nose up to, lied about, and refused to let us play in?  |
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Post by Spirit of Bruce on Dec 1, 2017 19:07:57 GMT -6
For those interested, here is December's opponent RPIs as of 12/1, according to RealtimeRPI.com
Ours is 71, also as of today...
Montana State 160
Western Illinois 133
Jacksonville 296
Belmont 72
Loyola 97
Western Michigan 183
Oakland (yawn) 150
Detroit MERCY! 207
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Post by outflow on Dec 1, 2017 19:44:21 GMT -6
At this point all you can do is win your damn games.
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Post by ghostofdylan on Dec 3, 2017 11:57:16 GMT -6
I'd like for this to be a safe haven for open discussion among the league's great fans of what can be done to rescue this flagging league. As every shred of statistical evidence bears out, we're now in a full-on nosedive.
Through games of Saturday, member schools are an embarrassing 24-38 vs. Division 1 opponents and we presently stand at No. 29 (out of 32) in the RPI with little chance of climbing into the top 25!
"Sending out an SOS. Sending out an SOS. Sending out an SOS ..."
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SRT4driver
Junior
We Are MILWAUKEE! And I'm all about accountability, unlike '5th Placer' Jeter apologists.
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Post by SRT4driver on Dec 3, 2017 18:34:38 GMT -6
That number may actually drop in the coming weeks. UW-Milwaukee (yes, I did that on purpose...we don't deserve to drop the hyphen at this point) plays a steady stream of low ranked RPI teams, and if they do not win every one of those games, the current 78 (really???) will crater into the hundreds. MKE was actually the 58th ranked team in the RPI the morning of the Montana State game, while Montana State was 164th of 351. A day later, MKE is 82nd and Montana State 84th in the nation. Lot's of movement this early in the season, without even needing to play a game, since 75% of a team's RPI has nothing to do with them winning or losing, but with their opponents (and opponent opponents) winning and losing. Small sample sizes (relatively few games played) means giant swings. MKE's win @ Iowa State is a huge factor in that good looking RPI right now, as is having won 67% of our D1 games thus far. Btw, Iowa State fell from 19th to 31st today because of MKE's loss to Montana State. |
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Post by Title on Dec 6, 2017 7:36:15 GMT -6
The RPI (and conference RPI) are meaningless because they are wholly backwards looking. There’s an argument for always ignoring it because the calculation is so cave man but certainly until after Valentines Day. Pomeroy recognizes the problem with fractional seasons which is why they have the preseason index that serves as ballast (there’s always ‘complete’ data) Sadly it shows the same thing though. The Horizon sits at 22 of 32, between the Patriot and OVC, and 6 spots below the Summit. The HL is clearly a low major league. Friends don’t let friends use the RPI kenpom.com/conf.php?c=Horz |
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Post by ghostofdylan on Dec 6, 2017 10:53:13 GMT -6
Butler, Butler! Wherefore art thou, Butler?
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Post by steveisback on Dec 6, 2017 10:55:46 GMT -6
Morphed into IUPUI.....ouch
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Post by ghostofdylan on Dec 6, 2017 19:57:20 GMT -6
25-40, 25-41, 25-42, 25-43 ... Could someone please help us? Anyone? Bueller?
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Post by Spirit of Bruce on Dec 6, 2017 20:55:21 GMT -6
Green Bay 59, Eastern Illinois 57. That's your only HL D1 win tonight, when all members except us had a game.
I'm going to have to readjust my projected win total for this season. I may have been on the low side....
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Post by Super King on Dec 6, 2017 21:55:28 GMT -6
RPI means less than nothing because there is no possibility we will make the tournament outside of a conference title. At this point, in my eyes, we are clearly the class of the league; so we can only hope for 4-5 years of consistent success -- entirely possible -- so that another realignment puts us in a good position. Conference realignment, as I have said over and over, has ruined college ball at the mid-major level. Our conference, especially considering Butler's history as part of it, has suffered the absolute most. (Valpo, by the way, is 8-0.)
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