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Post by BBFran on Feb 17, 2016 10:18:07 GMT -6
Looking at where we stand, who we play and where the other teams stand my best guess right now is that we will finish between 4th and 6th. We will be clearly favored in our games against CSU, YSU and UIC, and a modest but clear underdog against Valpo at home. If things hold to form and we go 3-1, we would finish 10-8. That's probably 5th or 6th. The Horizon tournament bracket (here: hln.s3.amazonaws.com/sports/brackets/2/bracket.pdf?1447775721 ) has the 5th seed playing the 8th seed in the second game on Saturday afternoon, scheduled for 2:30 ET. The winner then plays at 1:00pm ET on Sunday against the winner of the 4/9 game. The 6th seed plays the 7th seed in the nightcap Saturday at 7:30 ET, with the winner playing the second game Sunday, scheduled to start at 3:30 ET, against the winner of the 3/10 game. The way the conference season has gone I can't honestly say I think it matters a lot who we play in the first two rounds. I'm pretty sure the games will be close. From a personal standpoint I hope we finish 5th rather than 6th because it would be possible both to drive to the game Saturday, have Saturday evening available for other pursuits, see the game Sunday (assuming we win Saturday) then still have plenty of time to drive back to Milwaukee. Much as I'd love to go to the other games on Saturday and Sunday, not to mention the games Monday and Tuesday, that's just not happening this year. Like about 18-20,000 other HL fans, I will be dressed as an empty seat on Monday and Tuesday. P.S. And by the way, but for the incredible decision to destroy the HL's unique and brilliant tournament approach, these games would of course be played in Valpo, which would be a MUCH easier trip for fans from Valpo, Milwaukee, Green Bay and WSU (4 of the 6 teams that have a puncher's chance in the tournament). And if Milwaukee survived to the semis or finals, it would even be possible for Milwaukee fans to drive down and back for those games without having to leave Milwaukee earlier than about 3 or stay overnight. |
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Post by ricestillfumbled on Feb 17, 2016 12:36:35 GMT -6
I said this in the Green Bay thread but I said I would hope for the 6 seed for
A) avoiding valpo until Tuesday
B) avoiding Detroit until Tuesday
After some research I realized the only way we can play Detroit on Sunday as it stands now is if Green Bay loses two more times than both Milwaukee and Detroit. Keep in mind that Green Bay has the equally soft remaining schedule as we do so that is unlikely. Combine that with a 6 seed would have to play an equally geographically friendly Oakland team on Monday if we would beat Wright state Sunday. So maybe I'll just stop thinking so hard and just cheer for victories this week and see where it stands at the start of next week.
But here is where we stand right now
1) likely valpo- they will clinch the 1 seed with a win at home vs Oakland Friday
2) likely Oakland - would need to lose twice to lose 2 seed
3) likely wright state
4-6) Green Bay Milwaukee and Detroit
7-8) YSU and NKY
9-10) CSU and UIC
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Post by ghostofdylan on Feb 18, 2016 9:07:35 GMT -6
If I had to handicap the tournament right now, I'd go with:
1, Valpo
2, Oakland
3, Detroit
4, Wright State
5, Milwaukee
6, Green Bay
7, Northern Kentucky
8, Youngstown State
9, Cleveland State
10, UIC
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Post by Spirit of Bruce on Feb 19, 2016 9:47:33 GMT -6
Ugh, what a disappointment.
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Post by GoPanthersGo23 on Feb 19, 2016 13:55:00 GMT -6
Let's see how this shakes out....a lot of movement left to happen I am thinking. We have CSU, UIC and YSU all at home to finish the season (very, very winnable games in my mind) & Valpo (which we always seem to play well at home & it's on ESPN2).
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Post by ghostofdylan on Feb 19, 2016 15:37:42 GMT -6
So 10-8 is probable, which would likely yield us a 5 seed.
We were seeded fifth in 2014 ...
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Post by ricestillfumbled on Feb 22, 2016 8:05:34 GMT -6
Valpo clinched the #1 seed
Oakland just needs to beat Detroit at home Friday to clinch the 2
Wright State just needs to win one of their last 2 (@ysu and @csu) to clinch the 3
With Detroit losing yesterday and finishing off with a tough game Friday, it means it is likely Green Bay and Mileaukee will be the 4/5 seed which would set up a fun game at noon cst on March 6th assuming no upsets the day earlier.
Let's just make sure nothing weird happens tonight though, otherwise the above statement is thrown out.
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Post by BBFran on Feb 22, 2016 9:44:45 GMT -6
If everything plays to form GB would get the 4, playing either CSU or UIC at noon on Saturday in Detroit. We would get the 5, playing either NKU or YSU in the 2:30 game on Saturday. The winners play on Sunday in the 1:00pm game, and the winner of that game plays Valpo on Monday evening.
Of course, things have a way of happening in the last week of the regular season that can upset the "form" applecart. I'm sure neither Milwaukee nor Green Bay is conceding their home games to Valpo at this point. But even if you imagine a scenario where Milwaukee wins its last three and GB loses to Valpo, the only real effect is that Milwaukee would get the 4 and GB the 5, which in the grand scheme of things doesn't amount to much of a difference. (And even if WSU lost a game and finished 11-7, it would still own tiebreakers over both Milwaukee and Green Bay -- if I understand the rules correctly -- if either team also finished 11-7.)
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Post by ricestillfumbled on Feb 22, 2016 10:06:57 GMT -6
If everything plays to form GB would get the 4, playing either CSU or UIC at noon on Saturday in Detroit. We would get the 5, playing either NKU or YSU in the 2:30 game on Saturday. The winners play on Sunday in the 1:00pm game, and the winner of that game plays Valpo on Monday evening. Of course, things have a way of happening in the last week of the regular season that can upset the "form" applecart. I'm sure neither Milwaukee nor Green Bay is conceding their home games to Valpo at this point. But even if you imagine a scenario where Milwaukee wins its last three and GB loses to Valpo, the only real effect is that Milwaukee would get the 4 and GB the 5, which in the grand scheme of things doesn't amount to much of a difference. (And even if WSU lost a game and finished 11-7, it would still own tiebreakers over both Milwaukee and Green Bay -- if I understand the rules correctly -- if either team also finished 11-7.) Right, WSU owns both tiebreakers (and a possible 3 way tie) with GB and MKE so the only way they lose the 3 is if they lose out and GB wins out....or they win out and Oakland loses friday which would give them the #2 Unfortunately it's impossible for Milwaukee to get the 3 seed. It is mathematically possible, however, to fall all the way to 7 if Milwaukee loses their last 3 games and YSU wins their last 3 games. But as little difference that there is between a 4 and a 5 seed, The only difference between the 6 and the 7 is what color jersey you where in your first game. You can thank our lovely new nuetral site tournament for that fact. I think they could still have higher seeded hosts for the first round in the middle of next week but that's a whole different discussion. |
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Post by GoPanthers33 on Feb 22, 2016 21:30:31 GMT -6
I really don't see us getting anything other than the #5 seed.
If we beat Valpo the #4 seed is a possibility but I don't think #4 or #5 would be a huge difference anyway.
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Post by ricestillfumbled on Feb 23, 2016 7:47:40 GMT -6
If we lose to valpo and Detroit beats Oakland they would win the tiebreaker over us and would drop us to #6 regardless of what happens Sunday. If we beat valpo we would own a tiebreaker over them so the rest doesn't matter. Then if valpo beats Green Bay and loses to Milwaukee we would move up to 4 assuming we don't lose to UIC. But like what was said earlier, no real difference between a 4 and 5
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Post by GoPanthersGo23 on Feb 23, 2016 11:39:37 GMT -6
Oddly enough, I would like the 6 seed better than the 4/5 seed. We avoid Valpo until the earliest at the Championship and we would play YSU in the first round. But, like I have been telling people...we have much to figure out with the last 2 games of the year and honestly, I don't think any team is unbeatable on a neutral court in the league this season. Should be interesting.
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Post by Hack on Feb 24, 2016 8:00:34 GMT -6
Mike Tirico and Dan Dakich will call the Horizon championship game on ESPN.
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Post by FTA1982 on Feb 24, 2016 13:05:05 GMT -6
Mike Tirico and Dan Dakich will call the Horizon championship game on ESPN. It's unfortunate I'm going to have to watch the game on mute. Dakich is unlistenable at this point. The ESPN machine has ruined a guy who used to be solid at color commentary. |
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Post by ghostofdylan on Feb 24, 2016 16:35:17 GMT -6
I'm surprised to hear this.
What happened?
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