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Post by thepantherfan on Nov 20, 2011 12:35:03 GMT -6
Nice piece Jimmy. Personally, I'm a bigger fan of the PER rating. But as long as we are only comparing players on the same team, the Offensive Rating yields similar results. I'm in favor of using statistical ratings as opposed to the popular ratios of pts/game...etc. By adjusting a player's offensive contributions by their possessions, it give's you a pretty good indication as to their impact on the court. I'm going to assume that most individuals on the board will not be surprised to see Ryan Allen, James Haarsma, and Evan Richard topping off the ratings. Again, nicely done, please keep these stats updated as the season progresses. |
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Post by BBFran on Nov 20, 2011 12:38:36 GMT -6
I believe we can be competitive against the four B1G and BE teams we play -- if we commit to playing intense defense and if our shooters hit a few more shots than their shooting averages would predict. But looking at it objectively, we have at best a 1 in 3 chance in any of those games. 1 in 5, at best, in any of the games we play without Tony.
That doesn't mean we can't win or even that we won't win. It's just a realistic appreciation of the odds against us, and the effort it will take. But upsets happen, so why not us?
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Post by JG Panthers on Nov 20, 2011 12:56:06 GMT -6
Nice piece Jimmy. Personally, I'm a bigger fan of the PER rating. But as long as we are only comparing players on the same team, the Offensive Rating yields similar results. I'm in favor of using statistical ratings as opposed to the popular ratios of pts/game...etc. By adjusting a player's offensive contributions by their possessions, it give's you a pretty good indication as to their impact on the court. I'm going to assume that most individuals on the board will not be surprised to see Ryan Allen, James Haarsma, and Evan Richard topping off the ratings. Again, nicely done, please keep these stats updated as the season progresses. Agreed, I like the PER too, but in college it is not accurate enough. You won't find any perimeter players anywhere near the top of that list. |
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Post by PantherU on Nov 21, 2011 14:16:43 GMT -6
Texas Southern: A Closer LookKyle Kelm leads in Plus-minus and Roland Rating, Ja'Rob McCallum leads in Offensive Rating and Effective Field Goal Percentage.
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Post by thepantherfan on Nov 21, 2011 18:30:08 GMT -6
Texas Southern: A Closer LookKyle Kelm leads in Plus-minus and Roland Rating, Ja'Rob McCallum leads in Offensive Rating and Effective Field Goal Percentage. Very good Jimmy, any way we can get a running cumulative compilation of these stats as the season progresses? Also, where are you importing your base stats from for your analysis? |
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Post by Super King on Nov 21, 2011 18:40:53 GMT -6
Statsheet.com compiles most PER stats for every D1 team.
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Post by thepantherfan on Nov 21, 2011 19:02:23 GMT -6
Wow, I wish I would've found this site years ago, ive been doing most of my analysis longhand in excel. This makes things much easier
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Post by Spirit of Bruce on Nov 21, 2011 22:23:34 GMT -6
It's going to be a long season if this list gets updated after every game. Frankly it's too early and the competition has been too soft to come to any conclusions. This brutal stretch of games before Christmas will reveal a lot more about individual players. My only interest during this stretch is going 2-0 in league play and showing some competitiveness against the elite teams we play, starting with MSU. We will be giving up so much height and size against MSU. I am really curious to see how we try to counter that, if we can. How about winning those games? I have an interest in seeing us stay undefeated. Will we do that? Astronomical odds say we will not. But I want our team to go 1-0 every time out. Let's see if we can head into East Lansing undefeated and crack some heads. Make no mistake: when Bucky comes into town, this isn't going to be the same 14-16 team he walked over last time. We're going to smack that skunk upside the head. Believe. Rock on!! |
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Post by jhart05 on Nov 22, 2011 9:42:56 GMT -6
As far as the lineup, fellas, it will depend on the offense and players we will be seeing. I don't know Jimmy, I think this team is good enough where we should put our best 5 out there and make other teams adjust to us now. Put the big 3 out there (Meier, Haarsma, Kelm) along with Ryan and Kaylon. Let's see how the other Horizon League teams handle that size. I'm guessing not very well. |
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Post by PantherU on Nov 22, 2011 11:24:14 GMT -6
As far as the lineup, fellas, it will depend on the offense and players we will be seeing. I don't know Jimmy, I think this team is good enough where we should put our best 5 out there and make other teams adjust to us now. Put the big 3 out there (Meier, Haarsma, Kelm) along with Ryan and Kaylon. Let's see how the other Horizon League teams handle that size. I'm guessing not very well. Here's one team that lineup will not work against: Cleveland State. When they march Tre Harmon, Jeremy Montgomery and D'Aundray Brown out there at opening tip, the Vikings immediately have a speed advantage that they will exploit. |
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Post by JG Panthers on Nov 28, 2011 13:14:10 GMT -6
Through 6 games:
Minutes Per Game
31.4 - Kaylon Williams
31.3 - James Haarsma
28.0 - Ryan Allen
27.7 - Kyle Kelm
26.7 - Ja'Rob McCallum
Points Per Game
12.2 - James Haarsma
10.6 - Kaylon Williams
10.0 - Ja'Rob McCallum
8.5 - Ryan Allen
7.3 - Kyle Kelm
Rebounds Per Game
9.3 - James Haarsma
5.8 - Kyle Kelm
5.2 - Kaylon Williams
3.3 - Ryan Allen
2.2 - Ja'Rob McCallum
2.2 - Demetrius Harris
Assists Per Game
6.0 - Kaylon Williams
1.5 - Kyle Kelm
1.5 - Shaquille Boga
1.5 - Ja'Rob McCallum
Turnovers Per Game
4.2 - Kaylon Williams
1.8 - Kyle Kelm
1.7 - Shaquille Boga
1.3 - Ryan Allen
1.2 - 3 Players Tied
Steals Per Game
1.7 - Ja'Rob McCallum
1.4 - Kaylon Williams
Blocks Per Game
0.7 - Ryan Allen
Field Goal Percentage (min. 10 FGA)
.520 - James Haarsma
.500 - Ryan Allen
.500 - Demetrius Harris
.429 - Kaylon Williams
.421 - Kyle Kelm
3-point FG Percentage (min. 10 FGA)
.429 - Kaylon Williams
.400 - James Haarsma
.353 - Paris Gulley
.343 - Ja'Rob McCallum
.333 - Kyle Kelm
Free Throw Percentage
1.000 - Evan Richard (10-10)
.750 - Ryan Allen (18-24)
.750 - Ja'Rob McCallum (6-8)
.714 - Paris Gulley (5-7)
.652 - James Haarsma (15-23)
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Post by PantherU on Nov 28, 2011 13:19:18 GMT -6
It's astounding that a player can have 4.2 turnovers per game and still has an A/TO over 1.
Cut that down to 1 TO/pg, and he's garnering serious POTY consideration. But not until then.
Edit: that's 1 TO/pg the rest of the way.
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Post by jhart05 on Dec 1, 2011 23:58:03 GMT -6
Starting Lineup:
1-Kaylon
2-Ryan
3-Tony
4/5-James
5/4-Kyle
How can you not give these 5 players the most minutes on the team?
That is your best defensive team. It's going to out rebound every other team in the HL. Most games by 10 to 15 boards.
You've got enough inside and outside scoring. Let's not forget we just got back one of the best shooters in the league.
Size? It's huge for the HL and probably more like a mid to lower tier B10 team.
I don't want to hear this "we have to match up with them" stuff. Put the big guys out there and make the other teams match up with you. But in the HL they won't be able to. So push them around and take their lunch money.
It's also the lineup that's going to give you the best chance at beating Madison or Marquette. Why not unleash it against the HL?
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Post by PantherU on Dec 2, 2011 0:45:34 GMT -6
The best defensive team for the Horizon switches Tony (right now) or Kyle out for Paris Gulley. With Gulley, Allen and Williams on the floor, we can defend any team in the nation.
The best overall lineup might be that one you put out, Jeff.
Edit: like I said with Cleveland State, a three-guard set can run circles around that team. If we went 5 on 5 with that set against CSU's starters, maybe Ryan Allen and Kaylon Williams can cover Tre Harmon and D'Aundray Brown, but Jeremy Montgomery is going to get a TON of open looks because he's just too fast for any of the three posts.
Is Aaron Pogue really that daunting that we need Kelm, Meier, and Haarsma out there together? Remember that we're not very deep in the post, that running a three-forward set more than 5 minutes a game is going to tire those guys out.
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Post by jhart05 on Dec 2, 2011 9:15:33 GMT -6
Sorry, but I don't want to see Paris on the floor right now. He hasn't shown me anything yet on either end of the court. And after about the 2 minute mark last night, he might be in Jeter's doghouse anyway.
"Jeremy Montgomery is going to get a TON of open looks because he's just too fast for any of the three posts."
Maybe, but who is he going to guard on the other end? And he had better make every shot he takes because they aren't going to get any offensive boards.
Kyle, James, and Tony have to get 30 minutes a game. I don't see how that can be argued. That means they will all have to be on the floor together at some point in the game. When one of them needs rest then go to your little 3 guard lineup.
"Remember that we're not very deep in the post"
Disagree, we're plenty deep enough in the post for the HL. I'm fine with Haggs and Demetrius splitting those other 20 minutes in the post and any of the guards giving Tony a rest for 10 minutes at SF. That's five guys that can play the post and at worst, not hurt you. How many do you need?
It's not about what other teams put out there. Why should we try and match up to small teams? Put our big lineup out there and make them try to match up with us. Matchup small with the reserves when one of those big 3 need rest.
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