Post by ghostofdylan on Oct 5, 2017 10:30:59 GMT -6
There won't be a better season preview of the Panthers than this one from The Commissioner (who I wish was our actual commissioner). He appears to think that the team will finish around 15-17 this year, which lines up with my exact expectation. So here's my question: is this good enough for everyone?
Milwaukee
2016-17
11-24 Overall
4-14 Horizon (10th place)
RPI: 256
KenPom: 259
Returns
75.7% of minutes
74.4% of scoring
83.1% of rebounding
I began last year’s Panther preview by noting, “I have this little thing going with Milwaukee fans. Each year, I write up a Milwaukee preview. Panther fans excoriate me for not giving their team enough respect. Each year, I end up right. It’s typically my best prediction.” Last year Milwaukee fans and I got in synch: we both thought the Panthers would be really bad, and they were.
The Panthers then had another tough off-season, with their promising young coach, LaVal Jordan, leaving town for his alma mater, Butler. Jordan’s two best recruits, Caleb Nero and Clarkston’s Dylan Alderson, then asked to be released from their commitments. Nonetheless, this year, I’m actually kinda bullish on Milwaukee. If you want a dark horse—not to win the league, but finish in the upper division—Milwaukee’s a pretty good choice.
This is not because of the Panthers’ little run to the Horizon League Tournament final. Before that, remember, the Panthers had lost their last nine regular season games. So what’s my thinking?
First, I think overall Milwaukee was a bit better last year than their record indicated. For example, while they finished last in the league, in RPI they were 8th, and within 10 spots nationally of passing Youngstown and UIC. They had three overtime losses, and a couple other very close ones (by 2 to Ohio, by 3 to Wright State, for example). (Of course, you could argue they also had some lucky wins—two in OT, a 1 point win over Cleveland State, 2 points over Valpo in the conference tournament).
Second, despite losing recruits Alderson and Nero, Milwaukee kept everyone else—there were no transfers out except for forward Zac Saddler, who was redshirted last year as a freshman. Graduation claimed no one of importance to last year’s team except 3 point specialist Cody Wichmann. But Wichmann was pretty one-dimensional and while he did yeoman’s service for last year’s outmanned squad, it’s not a big loss going forward. So there’s not much in reinforcements, but not much lost either. Meanwhile, last year’s team featured 11 freshmen and sophomores, and I expect at least a few of these guys should show considerable improvement.
The best thing for Milwaukee last year was the emergence of guard Brock Stull, more or less from nowhere, to become one of the league’s best players. Stull finished the year in the top 15 in the league in scoring, rebounding, assists, 3 point shooting, and free throw shooting. He’ll anchor the team this year playing both the two and three slots.
At the point, Milwaukee returns sophomore August Haas, who was third in the league in assists during conference play. Haas needs to improve his shooting (barely 30% from three, under 38% overall), but he doesn’t turn it over much and runs the offense competently. He’s a good candidate to improve this year.
Milwaukee is thin in the front line but its core players are pretty good. After two years of very little production, 6-9 forward Brett Prahl emerged last year as a competent if unexceptional big man. For the season he averaged 7.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 0.8 blocks. But Prahl finished especially strong, averaging 11.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks over the season’s final 7 games. Prahl is a good finisher when he gets the ball in the block, a career 65% shooter (a league-best 66% last year) from the floor. In a league where good big men are always at a premium, Milwaukee has more certainty in the middle than many teams in the conference.
Joining Prahl is sophomore Bryce Nze (pronounced N-ZEE). Like Prahl, Nze isn’t a big scorer, but he’s hard to stop when he gets to the basket, shooting 65.8% last year. For the season he averaged 5.1 rebounds, but averaged 6 per game from late January through the end of the season. Nze’s minutes were limited by perpetual foul trouble last year, but if he can get that under control he could become a real force in the Horizon this year.
For the final starting spot, Milwaukee may try 6-8 juco transfer Vance Johnson, who averaged 13.6 points and 9 rebounds last year in the juco ranks. Otherwise they’ll go with a three guard lineup featuring junior Jeremiah Bell (7.1 ppg) or sophomore Jeremy Johnson (5.8 ppg). Indeed, they’ll play three guards a lot, because there’s almost no depth up front after Prahl, Nze, and Vance Johnson. It's for that very reason that I expect they'll start the three guards--so that there is some big man on the bench. Other guards who will see time are sophomore Bryce Barnes and freshman Carson Newsome. Newsome is a big (6-5) shooting guard who might help some on the size front, and has the potential to be an immediate impact player in the Horizon. Barnes is a three point shooter—45% last year.
Don’t get me wrong—the smart money pencils Milwaukee in for a second division finish. My guess is that they finish a couple games below .500. After all, this is basically the cast that finished last a year ago. A lack of depth up front could be a problem, especially since they’re not a particularly good three point shooting team—Stull and Barnes are the only real threats from deep. On the other hand, there is some talent here, some guys should improve, and Detroit, CSU, YSU, Green Bay, Wright State, and IUPUI are a rather motley lot this year. Even UIC, which most folks seem to predict to finish third, is hardly a juggernaut, having finished 17-19 a year ago. So if you want to pick a surprise team to finish 3rd or 4th in the Horizon this year, you could do a lot worse than Milwaukee. That said, I'm not putting them that high.
Probable Starters
PG – August Haas, 6-1 Soph. (5.0 ppg, 3.8 apg)
SG – Jeremy Johnson, 6-3 RS Soph. (5.8 ppg)
SG/SF – Brock Stull, 6-4 RS Jr. (13.6 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2.9 apg, 39.9% 3Pt FG)
F – Bryce Nze, 6-7 Soph. (6.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 65.8% FG)
F/C – Brett Prahl, 6-9 RS Sr. (7.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 66.4% FG)
Key Reserves
G – Jeremiah Bell, 6-1 Jr. (7.1 ppg)
G – Bryce Barnes, 5-11 Soph. (4.0 ppg, 45.2% 3PtFG)
G – Carson Newsome, 6-5 Fr.
F – Vance Johnson, 6-8 Jr. (13.6 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 60.2% FG at Northeast (Neb.) CC).
Milwaukee
2016-17
11-24 Overall
4-14 Horizon (10th place)
RPI: 256
KenPom: 259
Returns
75.7% of minutes
74.4% of scoring
83.1% of rebounding
I began last year’s Panther preview by noting, “I have this little thing going with Milwaukee fans. Each year, I write up a Milwaukee preview. Panther fans excoriate me for not giving their team enough respect. Each year, I end up right. It’s typically my best prediction.” Last year Milwaukee fans and I got in synch: we both thought the Panthers would be really bad, and they were.
The Panthers then had another tough off-season, with their promising young coach, LaVal Jordan, leaving town for his alma mater, Butler. Jordan’s two best recruits, Caleb Nero and Clarkston’s Dylan Alderson, then asked to be released from their commitments. Nonetheless, this year, I’m actually kinda bullish on Milwaukee. If you want a dark horse—not to win the league, but finish in the upper division—Milwaukee’s a pretty good choice.
This is not because of the Panthers’ little run to the Horizon League Tournament final. Before that, remember, the Panthers had lost their last nine regular season games. So what’s my thinking?
First, I think overall Milwaukee was a bit better last year than their record indicated. For example, while they finished last in the league, in RPI they were 8th, and within 10 spots nationally of passing Youngstown and UIC. They had three overtime losses, and a couple other very close ones (by 2 to Ohio, by 3 to Wright State, for example). (Of course, you could argue they also had some lucky wins—two in OT, a 1 point win over Cleveland State, 2 points over Valpo in the conference tournament).
Second, despite losing recruits Alderson and Nero, Milwaukee kept everyone else—there were no transfers out except for forward Zac Saddler, who was redshirted last year as a freshman. Graduation claimed no one of importance to last year’s team except 3 point specialist Cody Wichmann. But Wichmann was pretty one-dimensional and while he did yeoman’s service for last year’s outmanned squad, it’s not a big loss going forward. So there’s not much in reinforcements, but not much lost either. Meanwhile, last year’s team featured 11 freshmen and sophomores, and I expect at least a few of these guys should show considerable improvement.
The best thing for Milwaukee last year was the emergence of guard Brock Stull, more or less from nowhere, to become one of the league’s best players. Stull finished the year in the top 15 in the league in scoring, rebounding, assists, 3 point shooting, and free throw shooting. He’ll anchor the team this year playing both the two and three slots.
At the point, Milwaukee returns sophomore August Haas, who was third in the league in assists during conference play. Haas needs to improve his shooting (barely 30% from three, under 38% overall), but he doesn’t turn it over much and runs the offense competently. He’s a good candidate to improve this year.
Milwaukee is thin in the front line but its core players are pretty good. After two years of very little production, 6-9 forward Brett Prahl emerged last year as a competent if unexceptional big man. For the season he averaged 7.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 0.8 blocks. But Prahl finished especially strong, averaging 11.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks over the season’s final 7 games. Prahl is a good finisher when he gets the ball in the block, a career 65% shooter (a league-best 66% last year) from the floor. In a league where good big men are always at a premium, Milwaukee has more certainty in the middle than many teams in the conference.
Joining Prahl is sophomore Bryce Nze (pronounced N-ZEE). Like Prahl, Nze isn’t a big scorer, but he’s hard to stop when he gets to the basket, shooting 65.8% last year. For the season he averaged 5.1 rebounds, but averaged 6 per game from late January through the end of the season. Nze’s minutes were limited by perpetual foul trouble last year, but if he can get that under control he could become a real force in the Horizon this year.
For the final starting spot, Milwaukee may try 6-8 juco transfer Vance Johnson, who averaged 13.6 points and 9 rebounds last year in the juco ranks. Otherwise they’ll go with a three guard lineup featuring junior Jeremiah Bell (7.1 ppg) or sophomore Jeremy Johnson (5.8 ppg). Indeed, they’ll play three guards a lot, because there’s almost no depth up front after Prahl, Nze, and Vance Johnson. It's for that very reason that I expect they'll start the three guards--so that there is some big man on the bench. Other guards who will see time are sophomore Bryce Barnes and freshman Carson Newsome. Newsome is a big (6-5) shooting guard who might help some on the size front, and has the potential to be an immediate impact player in the Horizon. Barnes is a three point shooter—45% last year.
Don’t get me wrong—the smart money pencils Milwaukee in for a second division finish. My guess is that they finish a couple games below .500. After all, this is basically the cast that finished last a year ago. A lack of depth up front could be a problem, especially since they’re not a particularly good three point shooting team—Stull and Barnes are the only real threats from deep. On the other hand, there is some talent here, some guys should improve, and Detroit, CSU, YSU, Green Bay, Wright State, and IUPUI are a rather motley lot this year. Even UIC, which most folks seem to predict to finish third, is hardly a juggernaut, having finished 17-19 a year ago. So if you want to pick a surprise team to finish 3rd or 4th in the Horizon this year, you could do a lot worse than Milwaukee. That said, I'm not putting them that high.
Probable Starters
PG – August Haas, 6-1 Soph. (5.0 ppg, 3.8 apg)
SG – Jeremy Johnson, 6-3 RS Soph. (5.8 ppg)
SG/SF – Brock Stull, 6-4 RS Jr. (13.6 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2.9 apg, 39.9% 3Pt FG)
F – Bryce Nze, 6-7 Soph. (6.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 65.8% FG)
F/C – Brett Prahl, 6-9 RS Sr. (7.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 66.4% FG)
Key Reserves
G – Jeremiah Bell, 6-1 Jr. (7.1 ppg)
G – Bryce Barnes, 5-11 Soph. (4.0 ppg, 45.2% 3PtFG)
G – Carson Newsome, 6-5 Fr.
F – Vance Johnson, 6-8 Jr. (13.6 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 60.2% FG at Northeast (Neb.) CC).
