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Post by BBFran on Jul 12, 2017 12:44:03 GMT -6
So we now have a new coach/staff in place. It doesn't seem appreciably different from the last one to me other than that it is heavily Chicago-centric. (If that's also its recruiting focus, hold on to something. But that's another story.)
The question is, what are reasonable expectations for this new staff? Unlike LJ, they haven't lost any players from last year, as far as I know. So how many wins is it reasonable to expect next year after last year's 11 win debacle? 12? 15? Remember that the H League will be much weaker without Valpo.
And let's assume that Baldwin won't be a one year non-wonder, a la Jordan. 15 wins is generally a year of about .500. In what year should we expect to break into clear above .500 territory -- say, 18 wins? Similarly, by when do you think we should reasonably expect to be back in the top 150 in the RPI/Kenpom/Sagarin type rankings?
After the chaos of the last few years, it will be practically impossible to interest casual fans or the local media in the team until it starts winning consistently. It's going to take that to have any chance to bring attendance back even to the pre-Klotsche-exile standard. When should we reasonably expect to get there?
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Post by Pounce Needs Pals on Jul 12, 2017 13:07:08 GMT -6
Well, season-tickets start at $65. No reason why hoop fans shouldn't be buying tickets, unless they are broke in life.
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Post by ghostofdylan on Jul 12, 2017 13:14:30 GMT -6
Tough questions. Far more challenging than the local sports columnist has asked.
I'll say that we might be back to 20 wins by the 2019-20 season, depending upon that season's schedule. After all, there tends to be quite a long learning curve for a staff without so much as a former lead assistant.
The question is: is this enough to satisfy everyone? Is this what you expected at the time of Rob's termination last March 17?
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Post by MKEPanthers45 on Jul 12, 2017 13:27:04 GMT -6
I'm thinking 14-17 wins this year. We aren't really losing anything irreplaceable and everyone has a years more experience under their belt. Adding Vance will help so we have 3 legitimate big men. If nobody leaves and they bring in a decent recruiting class I could see 18 wins in 2018-2019.
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Post by BBFran on Jul 12, 2017 14:04:17 GMT -6
Well, season-tickets start at $65. No reason why hoop fans shouldn't be buying tickets, unless they are broke in life. Yes, they're cheap. But very few people bought them last year, and even those few who did often chose not to come. The problem runs much deeper than the cost. Until the program is stable (and administratively supported) and becomes consistently competitive again, don't expect to see anything that could fairly be called a "crowd" at the Arena -- no matter how cheap the tickets are. |
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Post by Pounce Needs Pals on Jul 12, 2017 14:12:48 GMT -6
Very few people have bought them years past as well. Causal fan doesn't even know any of the turmoil that has went on. They choice not to come before, because it's not the Bucks, Marquette or Wisconsin and just not look at the fact you can see D1 basketball at a classic arena, that has seen outstanding upgrades, thanks to the WCD and the Admirals.
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Post by BBFran on Jul 12, 2017 14:38:57 GMT -6
That's a quarter truth at best. Thousands more fans bought tickets and came to games just a few years ago. The terrible decision to send the program reeling by playing the '12-13 year at the Klotsche, the deflating academic suspension year caused entirely by administrative incompetence right after the team captured the NCAA bid with its great run in '14, and then the shockingly botched firing of Coach Jeter before a season when we would have had easily one of the top two most talented rosters in the league (and the consequent defections from the team) were a 1/2/3 punch that ripped the bottom out of our attendance. It's not hard to see what happened (unless you are an administrator trying to blame everybody but yourself).
Now, after an 11 win year, we have yet another new coach -- this time a guy that almost no local fan is even familiar with. Good luck giving away tickets.
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Post by Pounce Needs Pals on Jul 12, 2017 17:16:39 GMT -6
Thousands more, you must go back to Pearl days to see those great numbers. Not like that great crowd on Senior Day in Jeter's final year, that had just over 2,000 on a weekend. If you think that is quarter true at best in all the things I listed, ha, get it all over yourself.
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Post by BBFran on Jul 13, 2017 10:31:45 GMT -6
Good grief. Despite the fact that we live in the era of "alternative facts," there is something called reality, and it has actually been recorded. The average reported home attendance per game in the 2011-2012 season, the year before the team was condemned to the Klotsche, was 4,154 per game. The average reported attendance last year was 1,461 per game. To put last season's appalling number in perspective, it was 35% LOWER than the average attendance in the Klotsche year! And 65% lower than just six years ago before the 1-2-3 punch of administrative incompetence!
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Post by Pounce Needs Pals on Jul 13, 2017 10:57:18 GMT -6
Oh, please tell oh great one. Yes, I've posted those numbers before.  That's fine and dandy, still has almost nothing to do with my original post. Your talking something different in what I'm speaking about which you fail to understand. |
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Post by Pounce Needs Pals on Jul 13, 2017 12:27:41 GMT -6
I'm thinking 14-17 wins this year. We aren't really losing anything irreplaceable and everyone has a years more experience under their belt. Adding Vance will help so we have 3 legitimate big men. If nobody leaves and they bring in a decent recruiting class I could see 18 wins in 2018-2019. Looking forward to see what Zac Saddler can do. Plus, I like the future in Bryce Barnes. |
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Post by gbphoenix1 on Jul 13, 2017 12:46:52 GMT -6
In 2011-12 Milwaukee hosted the Badgers (10,143 attendance). They played a rivalry game with 7th place Green Bay (4437). They played meaningful conference games with Butler (6435) and two days later carried the momentum of winning against BU into a game with regular season champion Valpo (5773). Plus they played a bracket buster with Fairfield (5683). There are three games (UW, Butler and Bracket Buster) to help boost the attendance figures no matter who is running the administration. One issue for Milwaukee and many mids is getting good home games and in 2016-17 what was the marquee game for Milwaukee...Belmont (1127)?? Milwuakee didn't play a D1 home game until 11/30/16 and their next game at the arena was 12/19/16. That isn't going to get the job done for casual fans and maybe some hard core fans. Also, for comparison sake the 2017 Green Bay game drew 2626 and the Valpo game drew 2267. Most of the rest of the conference games were well under 2000 compared to 3000 give or take in 2012 so there were some major attendence issues. I do think it is relevant to see what the same game attendance decrease is from 2012 to 2017 to get a feel for how the program is doing (those numbers aren't great I know) rather than just overall average attendance. This isn't my fight so I won't offer an opinion on if it is just a lack of decent games, a lot of losing last year, negative press from the AD situation or combination of everything.
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Post by Pounce Needs Pals on Jul 13, 2017 14:09:44 GMT -6
In 2010-11 was after Milwaukee hosted the HL Title Game, that was a loss to Butler. Mojo was strong heading into 2011-12. The ticket office did the loge area, a 2 for $99 for season-tickets for first time buyers. UWM got rid of that in 2013. The phone calls from all the people that couldn't afford $99 for just one seat, instead of the two seats they had for first time buyers was a joke.
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Post by BBFran on Jul 13, 2017 14:17:38 GMT -6
Well we can all agree on one thing. All the "mojo" is gone. We now have a "D1" program that barely attracts D3 attendance.
Hence my original question: when can we expect this program to have re-established itself as a consistent winner, so that there is at least some chance that attendance can recover at least to the pre-2012 levels? Because if it doesn't, the handwriting is on the wall.
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Post by Pounce Needs Pals on Jul 13, 2017 14:25:55 GMT -6
There are D1 schools that draw worse than UWM did last season. 2016-17 was a major dip in attendance. I felt sorry for the players.
It seemed like it was going in the right direction after what Lavall Jordan had to work with for a roster in their run in Motor City Madness. The recruiting class looked pretty strong. Sucks two of the four are not coming with the coaching change, but that is the norm in college basketball.
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