Agonizingly close

[PantherU]

This post was originally on the PantherU board. Reposted with my own permission.

This team has coughed up an incredible amount of games. This team is 19-12 and only three of those games were by more than four points. Of the losses by 4 or fewer points:

- Place(Home/Neutral/Away)-Winning team (margin). Notes.

- N-Murray State (3). Jordan Johnson's tying three-pointer at the buzzer is waved off as a fraction of a second too late.
- N-*Duquesne (4). Panthers miss final 3 shots, commit 2 turnovers in final 90 seconds to give up late 4-point lead.
- H-**South Dakota (1). Panthers have last 3 shots of regulation, miss all three. Up 91-90 in 2OT, Matt Tiby catches defensive rebound, knocked to ground, called for travel.
- H-*Wright State (2). Michael Karena commits 4th foul with 3 minutes left in regulation, never fouls out; Panthers miss two threes in final 20 seconds of overtime.
- H-Oakland (3). Akeem Springs misses game with knee injury, Panthers miss two threes on last possession before Tiby gets too-late-layup.
- A-Wright State (1). Cody Wichmann called for phantom technical with 7:37 left; Joe Thomasson directs throat-slash gesture to MKE bench in front of ref at 0:34 left, no call.
- A-Northern Kentucky (4). Panthers give up double-digit lead at 10-minute mark, lose lead at 3:14 left. NKU biggest lead of 4 comes at 0:09 left in game.
- A-Green Bay (2). Panthers were losing by as much as 14 in 2nd half; freshman Brock Stull misses potential game-winning three-pointer with 0:08 left.
- H-*Valpo (4). Jordan Johnson steals, passes to Springs who misses game-winning runner to end regulation; Crusaders' hot shooting gives them just enough margin in OT.

* - Overtime (number of stars = number of overtime periods)

Other losses: @notre Dame (8), valpo (12), @detroit (14).

This team is so close. Jordan Johnson's shot is before the buzzer, Panthers ride momentum to beat Murray State in OT. Panthers make any of several field goals down the stretch or even protect the ball instead of turning it over, hold off Duquesne. Tiby comes down with the rebound, gets knocked to the ground and the correct call of a foul is made against South Dakota, Tiby seals it. Panthers make either of their threes at the end of regulation to beat WSU, or get Karena fouled out and own the paint in OT, beat WSU. Springs plays against Oakland, Panthers win going away. Joe Thomasson gestures a throat slash at the Panthers' bench, called for a technical. Panthers, then down one, make two free throws and get the ball with a chance to expand lead at the end. Panthers make one shot, here or there, survive at NKU. Brock Stull makes three-pointer from the corner, mobbed as the conquering hero at archrival Green Bay. Springs' runner is just an inch, maybe two to the left, banks in and Panthers beat Valpo in thriller at the Arena.

We're not talking about a whole lot of bad plays dooming a team. We're not talking about a series of decisions, or a bunch of mistakes, or a few bad calls going the other way in each game.

We're talking about one, at most two plays going just slightly different in each of these games, changing the whole trajectory of the season.

Nine games, each of them as agonizingly close as the last. Nine games, each of them with around 80 possessions, with one or at most two being the difference.

This team is nine 50/50 moments going our way from being 28-3.

28-3.

28-3.

28-3.

TWENTY-EIGHT AND THREE.

If you had talked to someone at the beginning of the 2015-16 season about what are the benchmarks of a Rob Jeter Milwaukee team, they'd say several things - marginal free throw shooting, a tendency to chuck dozens of threes, a lack of cohesive offense, average-at-best turnovers - but one I think they'd say more than anything is that no matter how good the Panthers are, they get blown out - a lot.

The Panthers of this season are none of those things - well, they still shoot far too many threes - but what's remarkable is that not only have the Panthers not lost a single game by 15 or more, only three losses are what we'd call "definite" losses, all on the road. Notre Dame is 6th out of 15 ACC teams. Valparaiso is the runaway conference champ. Detroit is, well, who knows what the hell happened there.

The point is this: these Panthers are agonizingly close to being one of the best teams in the country. Nine of the 12 losses could have going the other way if one, or at most two plays went the other way.

This is incredible. It's insane. It's also why I think we have more than a puncher's chance to win this effing tournament.

[FTA1982]

You could also say the same thing with a few of their wins. Koenig hits that 3, they lose to UW. Green Bay doesnt blow a 4 point lead after Botz's 3 with less than 2 minutes at Panther Arena, they lose that game. There are plenty of what ifs. As they say, numbers never lie and the two most important numbers are unfortunately 19-12.

[GoPanthers33]

It's really tough when you look at it. We could be talking about an at-large right about now...

The old saying was god teams find a way to win.

I think this is a good team but they just weren't able to close out many, many games this year.

[BBFran]

I have been a college basketball fan for over 50 years and I have never, ever seen a team with more razor thin losses. Now in fairness we also have 4 one possession wins. So in such games we are 4-9. That distribution is hard to stomach but it's not a wild aberration, it's just an aberration.

It's also a Rohrschach test. Some fans react by saying "That's on the coach -- show me a team that loses so many close games and I'll show you a coach who's a loser!" You know who you are. Other fans say, wow hard luck, but it shows we are right there. Count me in that group; I'm a glass half full kind of guy when it comes to my guys.

Bottom line -- I agree with you Jimmy. In a head to head match we are as good as any team in the HL, and better than most. GB, VU, OU and WSU had better brace themselves if they have to play us in the HLT. Our guys aren't going down easy to anyone.

[FTA1982]

I just checked Kenpom and we are 323rd in the luck stat. So maybe there is some merit to what Lemke was saying.

[PantherU]

Mar 1, 2016 18:48:12 GMT -6 FTA1982 said:

I just checked Kenpom and we are 323rd in the luck stat. So maybe there is some merit to what Lemke was saying.

IIRC Northern Kentucky is even less lucky than we are.

[BBFran]

Mar 1, 2016 18:43:06 GMT -6 FTA1982 said:

You could also say the same thing with a few of their wins. Koenig hits that 3, they lose to UW. Green Bay doesnt blow a 4 point lead after Botz's 3 with less than 2 minutes at Panther Arena, they lose that game. There are plenty of what ifs. As they say, numbers never lie and the two most important numbers are unfortunately 19-12.

I also pointed that out. But I think the more important point Jimmy is making is that we are right there in every game. Outside of two road games where we just weren't ourselves (VU and Detroit), we have been absolutely competitive with every team we have played. And of course in our home games we beat Detroit, and we were some of the most egregiously bad officiating I have seen this year away from beating Valpo. (I'm not a guy who often gets worked up about officiating, which I think is usually much better than fans think it is, but Vashil Fernandez should have had 9 fouls calls AND a Flagrant 1 in that game, and the foul call on Cody on the sideline was an absolute phantom. That officiating performance was disgraceful. Any ONE of those moments called properly wins us that game. And what the hell, while I'm at it we WON the SD game. We WON it, period, full stop. TWICE! With those two games as wins we would be 6-7 in razor thin games, 21-10, and fourth seed in the HLT right now.)

[BBFran]

I have been watching the kenpom luck quotient too. Let's just say that as in life, there is no justice in college basketball.

[ghostofdylan]

Mar 1, 2016 18:56:58 GMT -6 BBFran said:

Mar 1, 2016 18:43:06 GMT -6 FTA1982 said:

You could also say the same thing with a few of their wins. Koenig hits that 3, they lose to UW. Green Bay doesnt blow a 4 point lead after Botz's 3 with less than 2 minutes at Panther Arena, they lose that game. There are plenty of what ifs. As they say, numbers never lie and the two most important numbers are unfortunately 19-12.

I also pointed that out. But I think the more important point Jimmy is making is that we are right there in every game. Outside of two road games where we just weren't ourselves (VU and Detroit), we have been absolutely competitive with every team we have played. And of course in our home games we beat Detroit, and we were some of the most egregiously bad officiating I have seen this year away from beating Valpo. (I'm not a guy who often gets worked up about officiating, which I think is usually much better than fans think it is, but Vashil Fernandez should have had 9 fouls calls AND a Flagrant 1 in that game, and the foul call on Cody on the sideline was an absolute phantom. That officiating performance was disgraceful. Any ONE of those moments called properly wins us that game. And what the hell, while I'm at it we WON the SD game. We WON it, period, full stop. TWICE! With those two games as wins we would be 6-7 in razor thin games, 21-10, and fourth seed in the HLT right now.)

Wow, someone on here actually said it!

Thank you!!!

[mrpantherfan]

Officiating in this league this year: horrible & inconsistent. Changes by the game and the half (see Valpo game). How can any team or player adjust to this?

What I'm worried about is the HL thinking Valpo can make the sweet 16 and a big HL payday so the league "advises" officials how to call their games. It happens more than you think.

This is what I'll be watching throughout the tourney.