By Commissioner
from the Detroit board
Milwaukee
2014: 7-9 Horizon (5th); 21-14 overall (lost to Villanova in NCAA first round).
Coming off an NCAA appearance, with most of the team back, folks in Milwaukee are understandably looking forward to the 2014-15 season. But here’s the stark reality, Panther fans – your team is not that good.
I mean, it’s great that the Panthers won the Horizon tournament to make NCAA tournament last year. I’m not taking anything away from that achievement. Just don’t expect too much this year.
A unanimous (or at least near-unanimous) pick to finish last a year ago, the Panthers pulled a nice early season upset at Davidson and got through an otherwise homely non-conference schedule (#273 in the nation) with a 10-4 record. Other than Davidson, only one of their other 9 non-con conquests boasted a winning record against D-I competition last year, that being Alabama State, whose D-I competition, of course, was pretty marginal. The Panthers then went just 7-9 in Horizon play, but got hot at the right moment, winning 4 games in the tournament, which got them to the NCAA, where they were stomped by Villanova.
The end result was a remarkable 21-14 record. I say remarkable because Milwaukee, though seven games over .500, actually allowed more points than it scored. Nationwide, only 9 other teams had winning records while being outscored on the season, and the best of those nine was just 17-14 (Charlotte). In Horizon league play, it was worse, as MIlwaukee allowed far more points than it scored. The Panthers were 8th in average scoring margin in conference games, ahead only of UIC, with opponents outscoring the Panthers by nearly six points per game. In contrast, Detroit, 6-10 in the Horizon season, was outscored by an average of less than 2.5 points per game. Milwaukee was a bad shooting team (247th nationally) and a bad defensive team (237th in opponent’s shooting percentage). They were a bad rebounding team (266th in rebounding percentage) and a bad ball handling team (269th in turnovers per possession).
Usually, when a team whose fundamental stats are bad nevertheless wins a lot, it’s because they won a lot of close games, but Milwaukee didn’t even do that. They were just 2-3 in games determined by one possession (3 points or less) or OT. And when bad, they were often very bad, with losses by 28, 22, 20, 19, 16, and 16. By comparison, last place UIC (6-25) only lost 5 games by margins of 16 or more, and 8th place Detroit (13-19) just 4. But the Panthers were 10-1 in games decided by 5 to 9 points in regulation, and they had regular season champ Green Bay’s number, beating the Phoenix two of three and losing the third in OT.
Though most of the Panther squad is back, they lost top scorer Jordan Aaron (14.7 ppg) and #2 scorer and rebounder Kyle Kelm (12.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg). Also departing will be role players Malcolm Moore (3.8 ppg, 3.0 rpg in 13 mpg) and the oft-injured Thierno Niang (2.4 ppg in 12 mpg).
So Milwaukee was a bit of a fluke last year, and they’ve lost two of their best players. All that doesn't mean that they’ll be anybody’s pushover this year. After all, fluke or not, they did win 21 games last year. There is some talent here. Just not enough to contend.
The best returning player is junior forward Matt Tiby. Tiby (12 ppg, 6.5 rpg) faded last year as the season wore on (he was averaging 14.6 points and 6.7 rebounds through the team’s first 20 games), but I expect him to be one of the league’s better players this year. Senior point guard Steve McWhorter is also a solid player who has the potential to contend for all-conference honors. 6-10 junior center JJ Panoske has been a role player for two seasons, but should be ready to step into the starting lineup. Joining Panoske and Tiby up front is small forward Austin Arians, a good 3 point shooter who averaged 11 points per game last season. The off-guard spot will be a battle between Akeem Springs, a transfer from Northern Illinois, Jevon Lyle, who started two games last season, and sophomore Cody Wichmann, with Springs holding the edge.
This is not a deep team. There is no real back-up for McWhorter. Two who could see time at the point off the bench are Jimmy Stamas, a juco who averaged 11 ppg at Morton CC, and freshman Justin Jordan, a lightly recruited relative of the famous Michael. In the front, the Panthers hope for big things from 6-9 redshirt twins Brett and Alex Prahl. Brett is the better of the two. Trinson White is probably the backup small forward. But White, a juco from Indian Hills CC, was redshirted last season after a serious injury the year before. He’s scarcely played for two years and averaged under 7 ppg as a juco soph before his injury. In other words, their bench doesn’t have a point guard or a front court player with even a minute of D-I game time.
One can envision this team flaming out and winning just 4 conference games. Arians is the only proven three-point threat, there is little depth up-front, and as noted, this team won last year despite poor shooting, poor rebounding, and poor ball handling. Yet it’s also not unrealistic to see Arians emerge as a major scorer, Tiby become an all-conference player, and JJ Panoske emerge as a quality big man, with the Panthers finishing in the top half of the league.
The most realistic projection, however, would seem to be 6 or 7 conference wins and a second division finish. But this year there will be no hot run through the conference tournament – Milwaukee is barred from post-season tournaments due to its poor recent APR.
Probable starters:
PG – 6-2 senior Steve McWhorter (7.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 4.0 apg)
SG – 6-4 sophomore Akeem Springs, (7.7 points, 2.9 rebounds per game at Northern Illinois in 2013)
SF – 6-6 junior Austin Arians ( 11.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg, .367 3P%)
PF – 6-8 junior Matt Tiby (12 ppg, 6.5 rpg)
C – 6-10 junior JJ Panoske (3.2 ppg, 2.5 rpg in 10 minutes pg.)
Other Key Players:
PG 6-3 freshman Justin Jordan
G 6-2 junior Jevon Lyle (3.9 ppg)
SG 6-5 sophomore Cody Wichmann (2.8 ppg)
SF – 6-5 junior Trinson White
F 6-9 freshman Brett Prahl (redshirt)
Read more:
udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net/thread/318/2014-horizon-league-team-previews?ixzz3DcKz8Jqv=undefined#ixzz3Dlx1duy8