Milwaukee Panthers Tie-breaking Seeding Scenarios

[GoPanthers33]

With every team in the conference having two games left, here are the Panthers most likely tie-breaking scenarios.

#4 seed: Two Panther wins over UIC and Detroit with two Wright State losses to Valparaiso and UIC would give the Panthers the tie-breaker over Wright State due to beating Green Bay, the conference champion.
(Even if Youngstown State or Oakland were to join the tiebreaker at 8-8 the Panthers would still come out on top. They would win if Oakland entered due to Milwaukee and Wright State being 3-1 against the three team group, which would then go to Milwaukee over Wright State due to the win over Green Bay. Milwaukee would win if YSU entered the three-way tie because all three teams would be 2-2 against the group. Once again Milwaukee would get the nod due to the win over Green Bay.)

#5 Seed: Two Panther wins gets us the #5 seed due to winning the head to head tiebreak over YSU ( 1-1 split but a win over GB) and the head to head tiebreaker over Oakland (2-0 sweep). There could not be a three-way tie in this scenario due to Oakland and YSU playing head to head in their last game and the Panthers beating Detroit giving them at least 9 losses.

In a three-way tie at 7-9 with Detroit and Oakland all three teams would be 2-2 against each other but the Panthers would win the tiebreaker due to the win over Green bay. We would lose a three-way tie with Detroit and YSU due to being 1-3 against the other two while they would both be 2-2.

The Panthers could also get the #5 seed in a four-way tiebreaker. If we beat UIC but lose to Detroit with Detroit losing their other game to Green Bay both teams would be 7-9 in the conference. If Oakland and YSU both go 1-1 there would be a four-way tie with all teams at 7-9. The Panthers would win the tiebreaker if YSU’s one win comes against Oakland. All four teams would be 3-3 against each other and the Panthers win over Green Bay would again give them the nod. If Oakland’s one win comes against YSU then they would be 4-2 against the other three teams in the group and get the #5 seed.

#6 Seed: If Milwaukee ties with Oakland at 7-9 with Detroit going 8-8 and YSU going 6-10 we would win the tiebreaker due to sweeping Oakland 2-0.

If Milwaukee ties with YSU at 7-9 With Detroit going 8-8 we would win the tiebreaker due to the win over Green Bay.

#7 Seed: If Milwaukee ties with Detroit at 7-9 while YSU goes 8-8 then we would get the #7 seed due to being swept by Detroit.

If Milwaukee ties with Detroit and YSU at 7-9 we get the #7 seed due to being 1-3 against the group.
The Panthers lose both of their remaining games but Oakland does as well us giving us the tiebreaker over them due to the 2-0 sweep.

The Panthers lose both of their remaining games but YSU does as well giving us the tiebreaker due to the win over Green Bay.

#8 Seed: The Panthers lose both of their remaining games and YSU and Oakland each get a win.

(For all scenarios with the Panthers 7-9 I am assuming a win over UIC and a loss to Detroit. A win over Detroit and a loss to UIC would actually give us the edge in almost any group tiebreaker.)

If I missed an obvious outcome let me know and I’ll try to calculate how it would play out. Also if I made a mistake anywhere feel free to let me know. Things can get rather dicey at times.

Bottom line is we can do no worse than the #5 seed if we win both of our remaining games.

[GoPanthers33]

Here is what I predict will happen:

Tuesday, February 25:
UIC @ Milwaukee
Youngstown State @ Cleveland State
Valparaiso @ Wright State

Thursday, February 27
Milwaukee @ Detroit
Green bay @ Oakland

Saturday, March 1
Wright State @ UIC
Cleveland State @ Valparaiso
Green Bay @ Detroit
Oakland @ Youngstown State

Final Standings:
#1 Green Bay 14-2
#2 Cleveland State 11-5
#3 Wright State 10-6
#4 Valparaiso 10-6
#5 Detroit 7-9
#6 Youngstown State 7-9
#7 Milwaukee 7-9
#8 Oakland 6-10
#9 UIC 0-16

Hopefully we beat Detroit instead. I think the game could go either way but without Aaron I gave the nod to Detroit at home.

[GoPanthers33]

The only question I would have is if I'm reading the tie-breaker rules correctly.

(d) If two (2) tied teams met twice during the regular season and one of the two won both games, the winner shall be awarded the higher position.

(e) If two (2) tied teams split in two (2) games during the regular season, compare each tied team's record against the team occupying the highest position in the standings and continue down through the standings until one team gains the advantage, thereby winning the higher position.

(f) If three (3) or more teams are tied, compare the combined record of each of the tied teams against the other teams involved in the tie until an advantage is gained. (Example: Team A's combined record against both Team B and Team C as compared to Team B's combined against both A and C, etc.).

(g) If the provisions of (f) above fail to resolve a tie involving three or more teams, compare each of the tied teams' records against the team occupying the highest position in the standings and continue down through the standings until the tie is reduced to a two-team tie (at which time revert to items (d) and (e) above) or until the tie is broken.

(h) If the above provisions fail to resolve a tie, the team with the higher RPI for that season will receive a higher seed (source for RPI: College Basketball News).

I am reading it that in my above prediction we would be the #7 seed because Detroit would be 3-1 against the group while Youngstown State would be 2-2 and we would be 1-3. However if it only breaks the initial tie then that would leave Detroit as the #5 but then start the process over and leave us against Youngstown State in a tie-breaker that we would win and give us the #6 seed.

Can anyone clarify if I am correct in my line of thinking?

[pantherdon]

(g) only comes into play after (f) fails.

We would be the 7 seed. Detroit would be 3-1, Youngstown State would be 2-2, and we would be 1-3.

[GoPanthers33]

One day of games remain.

Milwaukee 7-9 (4-2)(Record against the group.)
Oakland 6-9 (3-2)
Youngstown State 6-9 (2-3)
Detroit 6-9 (2-4)

I believe Milwaukee has clinched a home game.

If they end up in a 3-way tie with YSU/Detroit Milwaukee would end up the #6 because Detroit would have beaten Green Bay and then edge out Milwaukee due to beating Valparaiso. (Both split with Wright State and were swept by Cleveland State.) In this scenario we would host Youngstown State in the #6 vs #7 game this Tuesday.

If they end up in a 3-way tie with Oakland/Detroit Milwaukee would end up with the #5 seed due to being 3-1 against the group while Detroit would be 1-3 and Oakland would be 2-2. In this scenario we would host Youngstown State in the #5 vs #8 game this Tuesday.

We would win any head to head tiebreaker with Youngstown State or Oakland and would get the #5 seed.

If we tie with Youngstown State we would host Detroit in the #5 vs #8 game this Tuesday.

If we tie with Oakland we would host Youngstown State in the #5 vs #8 game this Tuesday.

[pantherdon]

Simply put, if GB or Oakland wins we would get the 5 seed, if they both lose, we get the 6 seed.

[GoPanthers33]

Feb 27, 2014 21:16:41 GMT -6 pantherdon said:

Simply put, if GB or Oakland wins we would get the 5 seed, if they both lose, we get the 6 seed.

Yep.

I would guess that Green Bay will beat Detroit and Youngstown State will beat Oakland.

This will leave us as the #5 against Detroit and the winner would play the winner of the Valparaiso/Wright State vs UIC game. (Most likely Valparaiso)