Post by SRT4driver on Dec 25, 2006 5:34:49 GMT -6
So it's now getting close to the start of the conference season, and it's now late enough to begin seriously looking at RPI and the strength of individual conferences. Keep in mind teams can and will move dramatically during league play, but conferences will not.
RPI's through games of 12/23/06 from www.kenpom.com/confrank.php?y=2007
Rank......D-I Record (%)....RPI rounded to thousandth
1 ACC....... 101-28 (.783) .600
2 Pac 10......88-22 (.800) .579
3 Valley...... 73-27 (.730) .577
4 SEC....... 106-30 (.779) .577
5 Big Ten...101-35 (.743) .568
6 Big XII..... 97-36 (.729) .557
7 Big East...133-42 (.760) .556
8 MWC....... 68-30 (.694) .547
9 WCC....... 41-56 (.423) .514
10 C-USA... 63-47 (.573) .510
11 WAC...... 52-47 (.525) .504
12 Horizon...39-53 (.424) .502
13 SoCon... 32-53 (.376) .499
14 A-10..... 83-63 (.568) .496
A few observations...
The Valley speaks for itself. Moving on.
The Big East is really down this year compared to what it's used to. And when you consider that its winning % is only slightly lower than last years when it finished #2, that means two things:
1. Big East teams are playing less road games than ever (or none at all in some cases).
2. BE teams are taking some really bad losses.
The MWC is truly having a great year after a few bad ones recently. They've been in a statistical dead heat w/the Big East and Big 12 for the #6 spot all season long, and just dropped from the #6 spot a day or two ago. They also could be looking at 3 or even 4 NCAA bids this year.
How bad is the A-10 (again)? In 2005 they finished #15 and were a 1 bid league. Last year they finished #11, but were once again a 1 bid league had GW not been upset in the conference tourney to give their 8th place team an automatic bid and a 14 seed in the tourney. This year they look even worse, and currently rank as the #14 conference. Yikes! I bet St. Louis is slitting their wrists right now for immediately jumping to that league instead of at least trying to get into the Valley!
It's obvious to me that this season the Horizon League has done 1/2 of what it needs to do to be a serious (dare I say "major") college b-ball conference like the MVC now is. Unfortuntely, its done only the easier to accomplish half: go on the road. The difficult part, winning on the road, has been done by no one in the HL. And I mean NO ONE. Don't believe me? Consider that YSU currently has more road wins (at 3) than anyone else in the entire HL!
Pathetic, to say the least.
Outside of Butler, the HL is obviously having a down year. All but one team of the top 2/3 of the league have SERIOUSLY under-performed, including Loyola. All but 1 of the top 6 teams! Some have been just horribly below expectations (see Detroit).
But what else really strikes me is just how down all the conferences below the top 8 are this year. If just half of our top 6 teams had performed AT their preseason expectations, the HL could seriously be sitting solidly as the #9 conference in the land going into league play. Instead, the closest we get to meeting expectations is our preseason #1 team going 1-4 in its big non-conference games. And they're EASILY the 2nd best team in the league! SHEESH!
Will this league ever make it to its stated goal of becoming a perennial top 10 conference? Or just wander in the ranks of the middle third of the 31 conferences forever? This year was expected by all fans in the HL to be breakout year as a conference. Last season I remember countless threads on several boards talking about how strong the HL should be this year, with serious improvement expected across the board by nearly every team.
So what gives?
RPI's through games of 12/23/06 from www.kenpom.com/confrank.php?y=2007
Rank......D-I Record (%)....RPI rounded to thousandth
1 ACC....... 101-28 (.783) .600
2 Pac 10......88-22 (.800) .579
3 Valley...... 73-27 (.730) .577
4 SEC....... 106-30 (.779) .577
5 Big Ten...101-35 (.743) .568
6 Big XII..... 97-36 (.729) .557
7 Big East...133-42 (.760) .556
8 MWC....... 68-30 (.694) .547
9 WCC....... 41-56 (.423) .514
10 C-USA... 63-47 (.573) .510
11 WAC...... 52-47 (.525) .504
12 Horizon...39-53 (.424) .502
13 SoCon... 32-53 (.376) .499
14 A-10..... 83-63 (.568) .496
A few observations...
The Valley speaks for itself. Moving on.
The Big East is really down this year compared to what it's used to. And when you consider that its winning % is only slightly lower than last years when it finished #2, that means two things:
1. Big East teams are playing less road games than ever (or none at all in some cases).
2. BE teams are taking some really bad losses.
The MWC is truly having a great year after a few bad ones recently. They've been in a statistical dead heat w/the Big East and Big 12 for the #6 spot all season long, and just dropped from the #6 spot a day or two ago. They also could be looking at 3 or even 4 NCAA bids this year.
How bad is the A-10 (again)? In 2005 they finished #15 and were a 1 bid league. Last year they finished #11, but were once again a 1 bid league had GW not been upset in the conference tourney to give their 8th place team an automatic bid and a 14 seed in the tourney. This year they look even worse, and currently rank as the #14 conference. Yikes! I bet St. Louis is slitting their wrists right now for immediately jumping to that league instead of at least trying to get into the Valley!
It's obvious to me that this season the Horizon League has done 1/2 of what it needs to do to be a serious (dare I say "major") college b-ball conference like the MVC now is. Unfortuntely, its done only the easier to accomplish half: go on the road. The difficult part, winning on the road, has been done by no one in the HL. And I mean NO ONE. Don't believe me? Consider that YSU currently has more road wins (at 3) than anyone else in the entire HL!
Pathetic, to say the least.
Outside of Butler, the HL is obviously having a down year. All but one team of the top 2/3 of the league have SERIOUSLY under-performed, including Loyola. All but 1 of the top 6 teams! Some have been just horribly below expectations (see Detroit).
But what else really strikes me is just how down all the conferences below the top 8 are this year. If just half of our top 6 teams had performed AT their preseason expectations, the HL could seriously be sitting solidly as the #9 conference in the land going into league play. Instead, the closest we get to meeting expectations is our preseason #1 team going 1-4 in its big non-conference games. And they're EASILY the 2nd best team in the league! SHEESH!
Will this league ever make it to its stated goal of becoming a perennial top 10 conference? Or just wander in the ranks of the middle third of the 31 conferences forever? This year was expected by all fans in the HL to be breakout year as a conference. Last season I remember countless threads on several boards talking about how strong the HL should be this year, with serious improvement expected across the board by nearly every team.
So what gives?
