Saturday Scenarios

[GBFanJ]

Yes, this is a VERY long post, but it goes through all of the possible scenarios for Saturday. Bottom line for UWM: They get the #1 seed if either Butler loses or Wright State, Cleveland State, & Loyola win. Otherwise, Butler gets it.

Most likely seedings
Based on percentages

#1 - UWM
#2 - Butler
#3 - Wright State
#4 - UWGB
#5 - Detroit
#6 - Loyola
#7 - UIC
#8 - Cleveland State
#9 - Youngstown State

Percent chance of receiving possible seeds
Based on each team having a 50/50 chance of winning each game, though actual odds may be different

UWM
#1 seed: 56.25%
#2 seed: 43.75%

Butler
#1 seed: 43.75%
#2 seed: 56.25%

Wright State
#3 seed: 50%
#4 seed: 6.25%
#5 seed: 18.75%
#6 seed: 18.75%
#7 seed: 6.25%

UWGB
#3 seed: 12.5%
#4 seed: 43.75%
#5 seed: 18.75%
#6 seed: 18.75%
#7 seed: 6.25%

Detroit
#4 seed: 12.5%
#5 seed: 37.5%
#6 seed: 18.75%
#7 seed: 31.25%

Loyola
#3 seed: 12.5%
#4 seed: 25%
#5 seed: 18.75%
#6 seed: 25%
#7 seed: 18.75%

UIC
#3 seed: 25%
#4 seed: 12.5%
#5 seed: 6.25%
#6 seed: 18.75%
#7 seed: 37.5%

Cleveland State
#8 seed: 75%
#9 seed: 25%

Youngstown State
#8 seed: 25%
#9 seed: 75%


All 16 possible scenarios
Winners for each game listed first
Final record in parenthesis, tie-breakers in brackets


UIC, Detroit, CSU, YSU

# 1 - UWM (12-4)
# 2 - Butler (11-5)
# 3 - UIC (8-8) [3-1 vs. Detroit/WSU]
# 4 - Detroit (8-8) [2-2 vs. UIC/WSU]
# 5 - Wright State (8-8) [1-3 vs. UIC/Detroit]
# 6 - UWGB (7-9) [2-0 vs. Loyola]
# 7 - Loyola (7-9) [0-2 vs. UWGB]
# 8 - Cleveland State (6-10)
# 9 - Youngstown State (5-11)

UIC, Detroit, CSU, Loyola

# 1 - UWM (12-4)
# 2 - Butler (11-5)
# 3 - Loyola (8-8) [4-2 vs. UIC/Detroit/WSU]
# 4 - UIC (8-8) [3-3 vs. Loyola/Detroit/WSU, 1-1 vs. Detroit, 1-1 vs. UWM]
# 5 - Detroit (8-8) [3-3 vs. Loyola/UIC/WSU, 1-1 vs. UIC, 0-2 vs. UWM]
# 6 - Wright State (8-8) [2-4 vs. Loyola/UIC/Detroit]
# 7 - UWGB (7-9)
# 8 - Cleveland State (6-10)
# 9 - Youngstown State (4-12)

UIC, Detroit, UWGB, YSU

# 1 - UWM (12-4)
# 2 - Butler (11-5)
# 3 - UIC (8-8) [4-2 vs. UWGB/Detroit/WSU]
# 4 - UWGB (8-8) [3-3 vs. UIC/Detroit/WSU, 1-1 vs. Detroit, 1-1 vs. UWM]
# 5 - Detroit (8-8) [3-3 vs. UIC/UWGB/WSU, 1-1 vs. UWGB, 0-2 vs. UWM]
# 6 - Wright State (8-8) [2-4 vs. UIC/UWGB/Detroit]
# 7 - Loyola (7-9)
# 8 - Youngstown State (5-11) [1-1 vs. CSU, 0-2 vs. UWM, 1-1 vs. Butler]
# 9 - Cleveland State (5-11) [1-1 vs. CSU, 0-2 vs. UWM, 0-2 vs. Butler]

UIC, Detroit, UWGB, Loyola

# 1 - UWM (12-4)
# 2 - Butler (11-5)
# 3 - UWGB (8-8) [5-3 vs. UIC/Detroit/Loyola/WSU]
# 4 - Loyola (8-8) [4-4 vs. UWGB/Detroit/Loyola/WSU, 3-1 vs. UIC/Detroit]
# 5 - Detroit (8-8) [4-4 vs. UWGB/UIC/Loyola/WSU, 2-2 vs. UIC/Loyola]
# 6 - UIC (8-8) [4-4 vs. UWGB/UIC/Detroit/WSU, 1-3 vs. Detroit/Loyola]
# 7 - Wright State (8-8) [3-5 vs. UWGB/UIC/Detroit/Loyola]
# 8 - Cleveland State (5-11)
# 9 - Youngstown State (4-12)

UIC, Butler, CSU, YSU

# 1 - Butler (12-4) [1-1 vs. UWM, 3-1 vs. UIC/WSU]
# 2 - UWM (12-4) [1-1 vs. Butler, 2-2 vs. UIC/WSU]
# 3 - UIC (8-8) [2-0 vs. WSU]
# 4 - Wright State (8-8) [0-2 vs. UIC]
# 5 - UWGB (7-9) [3-1 vs. Detroit/Loyola]
# 6 - Detroit (7-9) [2-2 vs. UWGB/Loyola]
# 7 - Loyola (7-9) [1-3 vs. UWGB/Detroit]
# 8 - Cleveland State (6-10)
# 9 - Youngstown State (5-11)

UIC, Butler, CSU, Loyola

# 1 - Butler (12-4) [1-1 vs. UWM, 4-2 vs. Loyola/UIC/WSU, 4-0 vs. UWGB/Detroit]
# 2 - UWM (12-4) [1-1 vs. Butler, 4-2 vs. Loyola/UIC/WSU, 3-1 vs. UWGB/Detroit]
# 3 - Loyola (8-8) [3-1 vs. UIC/WSU]
# 4 - UIC (8-8) [2-2 vs. Loyola/WSU]
# 5 - Wright State (8-8) [1-3 vs. UIC/Loyola]
# 6 - UWGB (7-9) [1-1 vs. Detroit, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 7 - Detroit (7-9) [1-1 vs. UWGB, 0-4 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 8 - Cleveland State (6-10)
# 9 - Youngstown State (4-12)

UIC, Butler, UWGB, YSU

# 1 - Butler (12-4) [1-1 vs. UWM, 5-1 vs. UIC/UWGB/WSU]
# 2 - UWM (12-4) [1-1 vs. Butler, 3-3 vs. UIC/UWGB/WSU]
# 3 - UIC (8-8) [3-1 vs. UWGB/WSU]
# 4 - UWGB (8-8) [2-2 vs. UIC/WSU]
# 5 - Wright State (8-8) [1-3 vs. UWGB/UIC]
# 6 - Loyola (7-9) [1-1 vs. Detroit, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 7 - Detroit (7-9) [1-1 vs. Loyola, 0-4 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 8 - Youngstown State (5-11) [1-1 vs. CSU, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 9 - Cleveland State (5-11) [1-1 vs. CSU, 0-4 vs. Butler/UWM]

UIC, Butler, UWGB, Loyola

# 1 - Butler (12-4) [1-1 vs. UWM, 6-2 vs. UWGB/Loyola/UIC/WSU]
# 2 - UWM (12-4) [1-1 vs. Butler, 5-3 vs. UWGB/Loyola/UIC/WSU]
# 3 - UWGB (8-8) [4-2 vs. Loyola/UIC/WSU]
# 4 - Loyola (8-8) [3-3 vs. UWGB/UIC/WSU, 2-0 vs. UIC]
# 5 - UIC (8-8) [3-3 vs. UWGB/UIC/WSU, 0-2 vs. Loyola]
# 6 - Wright State (8-8) [2-4 vs. UWGB/Loyola/UIC]
# 7 - Detroit (7-9)
# 8 - Cleveland State (5-11)
# 9 - Youngstown State (4-12)

WSU, Detroit, CSU, YSU

# 1 - UWM (12-4)
# 2 - Butler (11-5)
# 3 - Wright State (9-7)
# 4 - Detroit (8-8)
# 5 - UWGB (7-9) [3-1 vs. Loyola/UIC]
# 6 - Loyola (7-9) [2-2 vs. UWGB/UIC]
# 7 - UIC (7-9) [1-3 vs. UWGB/Loyola]
# 8 - Cleveland State (6-10)
# 9 - Youngstown State (5-11)

WSU, Detroit, CSU, Loyola

# 1 - UWM (12-4)
# 2 - Butler (11-5)
# 3 - Wright State (9-7)
# 4 - Loyola (8-8) [1-1 vs. Detroit, 0-2 vs. UWM, 1-1 vs. Butler, 1-1 vs. WSU, 2-2 vs. UWGB/UIC, 2-0 vs. CSU]
# 5 - Detroit (8-8) [1-1 vs. Loyola, 0-2 vs. UWM, 1-1 vs. Butler, 1-1 vs. WSU, 2-2 vs. UWGB/UIC, 1-1 vs. CSU]
# 6 - UWGB (7-9) [1-1 vs. UIC, 1-1 vs. UWM, 0-2 vs. Butler, 1-1 vs. WSU, 3-1 vs. Loyola/Detroit]
# 7 - UIC (7-9) [1-1 vs. UWGB, 1-1 vs. UWM, 0-2 vs. Butler, 1-1 vs. WSU, 1-3 vs. Loyola/Detroit]
# 8 - Cleveland State (6-10)
# 9 - Youngstown State (4-12)

WSU, Detroit, UWGB, YSU

# 1 - UWM (12-4)
# 2 - Butler (11-5)
# 3 - Wright State (9-7)
# 4 - UWGB (8-8) [1-1 vs. Detroit, 1-1 vs. UWM]
# 5 - Detroit (8-8) [1-1 vs. UWGB, 0-2 vs. UWM]
# 6 - Loyola (7-9) [2-0 vs. UIC]
# 7 - UIC (7-9) [0-2 vs. Loyola]
# 8 - Youngstown State (5-11) [1-1 vs. CSU, 0-2 vs. UWM, 1-1 vs. Butler]
# 9 - Cleveland State (5-11) [1-1 vs. CSU, 0-2 vs. UWM, 0-2 vs. Butler]

WSU, Detroit, UWGB, Loyola

# 1 - UWM (12-4)
# 2 - Butler (11-5)
# 3 - Wright State (9-7)
# 4 - UWGB (8-8) [3-1 vs. Detroit/Loyola]
# 5 - Detroit (8-8) [2-2 vs. UWGB/Loyola]
# 6 - Loyola (8-8) [1-3 vs. UWGB/Detroit]
# 7 - UIC (7-9)
# 8 - Cleveland State (5-11)
# 9 - Youngstown State (4-12)

WSU, Butler, CSU, YSU

# 1 - Butler (12-4) [1-1 vs. UWM, 1-1 vs. WSU, 7-1 vs. UWGB/Loyola/Detroit/UIC]
# 2 - UWM (12-4) [1-1 vs. Butler, 1-1 vs. WSU, 6-2 vs. UWGB/Loyola/Detroit/UIC]
# 3 - Wright State (9-7)
# 4 - UWGB (7-9) [4-2 vs. Loyola/Detroit/UIC]
# 5 - Loyola (7-9) [3-3 vs. UWGB/Detroit, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 6 - Detroit (7-9) [3-3 vs. UWGB/Loyola, 0-4 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 7 - UIC (7-9) [2-4 vs. UWGB/Loyola/Detroit]
# 8 - Cleveland State (6-10)
# 9 - Youngstown State (5-11)

WSU, Butler, CSU, Loyola

# 1 - UWM (12-4) [1-1 vs. Butler, 1-1 vs. WSU, 2-0 vs. Loyola]
# 2 - Butler (12-4) [1-1 vs. UWM, 1-1 vs. WSU, 1-1 vs. Loyola]
# 3 - Wright State (9-7)
# 4 - Loyola (8-8)
# 5 - UWGB (7-9) [2-2 vs. UIC/Detroit, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM, 1-1 vs. UIC, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM, 1-1 vs. WSU, 2-0 vs. Loyola]
# 6 - UIC (7-9) [2-2 vs. UWGB/Detroit, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM, 1-1 vs. UWGB, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM, 1-1 vs. WSU, 0-2 vs. Loyola]
# 7 - Detroit (7-9) [2-2 vs. UWGB/UIC, 0-4 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 8 - Cleveland State (6-10)
# 9 - Youngstown State (4-12)

WSU, Butler, UWGB, YSU

# 1 - Butler (12-4) [1-1 vs. UWM, 1-1 vs. WSU, 2-0 vs. UWGB]
# 2 - UWM (12-4) [1-1 vs. Butler, 1-1 vs. WSU, 1-1 vs. UWGB]
# 3 - Wright State (9-7)
# 4 - UWGB (8-8)
# 5 - Loyola (7-9) [3-1 vs. Detroit/UIC]
# 6 - Detroit (7-9) [2-2 vs. Loyola/UIC]
# 7 - UIC (7-9) [1-3 vs. Loyola/Detroit]
# 8 - Youngstown State (5-11) [1-1 vs. CSU, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 9 - Cleveland State (5-11) [1-1 vs. CSU, 0-4 vs. Butler/UWM]

WSU, Butler, UWGB, Loyola

# 1 - Butler (12-4) [1-1 vs. UWM, 1-1 vs. WSU, 3-1 vs. UWGB/Loyola, 4-0 vs. UIC/Detroit]
# 2 - UWM (12-4) [1-1 vs. Butler, 1-1 vs. WSU, 3-1 vs. UWGB/Loyola, 3-1 vs. UIC/Detroit]
# 3 - Wright State (9-7)
# 4 - UWGB (8-8) [2-0 vs. Loyola]
# 5 - Loyola (8-8) [0-2 vs. UWGB]
# 6 - UIC (7-9) [1-1 vs. Detroit, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 7 - Detroit (7-9) [1-1 vs. UIC, 0-4 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 8 - Cleveland State (5-11)
# 9 - Youngstown State (4-12)

[DunneDeal]

Thanks...

[gbbunk]

According to the tiebreakers on the horizon league website
D. states that tiebreakers between two teams, tied for the same seed is decided by the head to head records.
If Loyola wins on saturday and UWGB loses...it doesn't matter what UIC does..Since Loyola would win the tiebreaker for the 4th seed over UIC due to head to head records.

[Kroener3535]

gbbunk said:

According to the tiebreakers on the horizon league website
D. states that tiebreakers between two teams, tied for the same seed is decided by the head to head records.
If Loyola wins on saturday and UWGB loses...it doesn't matter what UIC does..Since Loyola would win the tiebreaker for the 4th seed over UIC due to head to head records.

Good God I hope its this way...one less team I would have to worry about

[uwmfan04]

gbbunk said:

According to the tiebreakers on the horizon league website
D. states that tiebreakers between two teams, tied for the same seed is decided by the head to head records.
If Loyola wins on saturday and UWGB loses...it doesn't matter what UIC does..Since Loyola would win the tiebreaker for the 4th seed over UIC due to head to head records.

YES, IT DOES MATTER WHAT UIC DOES ON SATURDAY!!

Here is my reply from Sports Information Director Kevin O'Connor:

Thanks for your feedback. In fact, the story is correct. According to the
Horizon League's tiebreaking procedures, ties below you in the standings are
NOT broken when breaking your ties. In other words, if Butler and UWM tie for
first and UIC and Loyola tie for 4th (at 8-8 as noted in your scenario), UIC
and Loyola will be considered as ONE team for the tiebreaker. Thus, Butler
would have a 3-1 record against these teams (2-0 v UIC, 1-1 v Loyola), and UWM
would have a 3-1 record against these teams (1-1 v UIC, 2-0 v Loyola). They
would not break the tie. It would then go to the next team in the standings,
which would be UW-Green Bay and Detroit. Again, treating both of those 7-9
teams as ONE team, UWM was 1-1 against GB and 2-0 v Detroit, while Butler was
2-0 v GB and would now be 2-0 v Detroit. The tie would be broken in Butler's
favor. As stated in the release, if Butler beats Detroit Saturday, UWM needs
three things to happen (Loyola win, GB loss, UIC loss) to have the tie broken
in their favor. - Kevin

[Hack]

Incorrect scenarios above.

As was stated in other threads per Kevin O'Connor, UIC needs to lose as well.

Let's say that UWGB loses at CSU, Loyola wins over YSU, UIC beats Wright State and Butler beats Detroit ...

Wright State, UIC and Loyola would be tied for the 3rd seed, there is no tiebreaker between them relating to the top seed ... meaning you have to consider Wright State, UIC and Loyola as ONE team. If Wright State, Loyola and UIC are tied at 8-8, UWM and Butler will both have 4-2 records against them.

Then it goes down to the next two teams in the standings ... Detroit and UWGB, who would be tied at 7-9. Butler would be 4-0 over Detroit and UWGB ... UWM is 3-1 over Detroit and UWGB.

Bottom line...

UIC NEEDS TO LOSE!!

[JimmyLemke]

Bottom Line: we're watching every HL game this weekend.

[GBFanJ]

sec325row1 said:

Incorrect scenarios above.

As was stated in other threads per Kevin O'Connor, UIC needs to lose as well.

Let's say that UWGB loses at CSU, Loyola wins over YSU, UIC beats Wright State and Butler beats Detroit ...

Wright State, UIC and Loyola would be tied for the 3rd seed, there is no tiebreaker between them relating to the top seed ... meaning you have to consider Wright State, UIC and Loyola as ONE team. If Wright State, Loyola and UIC are tied at 8-8, UWM and Butler will both have 4-2 records against them.

Then it goes down to the next two teams in the standings ... Detroit and UWGB, who would be tied at 7-9. Butler would be 4-0 over Detroit and UWGB ... UWM is 3-1 over Detroit and UWGB.

Bottom line...

UIC NEEDS TO LOSE!!

[UIC, Butler, CSU, Loyola

# 1 - Butler (12-4) [1-1 vs. UWM, 4-2 vs. Loyola/UIC/WSU, 4-0 vs. UWGB/Detroit]
# 2 - UWM (12-4) [1-1 vs. Butler, 4-2 vs. Loyola/UIC/WSU, 3-1 vs. UWGB/Detroit]
# 3 - Loyola (8-8) [3-1 vs. UIC/WSU]
# 4 - UIC (8-8) [2-2 vs. Loyola/WSU]
# 5 - Wright State (8-8) [1-3 vs. UIC/Loyola]
# 6 - UWGB (7-9) [1-1 vs. Detroit, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 7 - Detroit (7-9) [1-1 vs. UWGB, 0-4 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 8 - Cleveland State (6-10)
# 9 - Youngstown State (4-12)

That's the scenario above that you're talking about. This is what I have written down. How am I wrong on it? It's exactly what you said too. I'm willing to admit it when I'm wrong, but I don't see where I'm wrong.

WSU, Butler, CSU, Loyola

# 1 - UWM (12-4) [1-1 vs. Butler, 1-1 vs. WSU, 2-0 vs. Loyola]
# 2 - Butler (12-4) [1-1 vs. UWM, 1-1 vs. WSU, 1-1 vs. Loyola]
# 3 - Wright State (9-7)
# 4 - Loyola (8-8)
# 5 - UWGB (7-9) [2-2 vs. UIC/Detroit, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM, 1-1 vs. UIC, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM, 1-1 vs. WSU, 2-0 vs. Loyola]
# 6 - UIC (7-9) [2-2 vs. UWGB/Detroit, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM, 1-1 vs. UWGB, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM, 1-1 vs. WSU, 0-2 vs. Loyola]
# 7 - Detroit (7-9) [2-2 vs. UWGB/UIC, 0-4 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 8 - Cleveland State (6-10)
# 9 - Youngstown State (4-12)

That's the one scenario I have listed where Butler wins and UWM gets the #1 seed.

[Hack]

You're right ... I misread it, thought I saw one where UIC and Butler won with UWM getting the No. 1 ... Good work.

To gbbunk, UIC needs to lose.

[GBFanJ]

It's alright, challenges are good to have because they keep you in line. I did receive one good criticism from the Loyola board, though. I forgot to add what the actual games are. I guess I assumed that most people who read the post already know what they are.

[panthernick]

Our best bet is for Butler to just lose there game at Detroit. Butler has had a lot of momentum at the end of this season, but Detroit is a very good home. Don't forget it is Senior night and Homecoming I believe in Detroit. I think the chances are pretty good for a Titans win.

[Ron Diaz]

Yeah, I hope you are right. It would be say relaxing to see Butler drop it on Saturday.

[troggy]

UIC
#3 seed: 25%
#4 seed: 12.5%
#5 seed: 6.25%
#6 seed: 18.75%
#7 seed: 37.5%

Interesting that UIC has a better chance to be either the #3 seed or the #7 seed than anything in-between.

Todd

[TBone]

Keep in mind these percentages are based on a 50/50 percentage to win the game regardless of the conditions. (ie. Butler is 50/50 to win at Detroit, probably too low IMO, etc. etc.)

I wouldn't exactly say one should count on these percentages.

T

[GBFanJ]

Here's percentages posted by BU97 on the Butler board using the Pomeroy percentages.

....BUT...UWM...WSU...UIC...WGB...LUC...UDM...CSU...YSU
1..57.2%.42.8%..0.0%..0.0%..0.0%..0.0%..0.0%..0.0%..0.0%
2..42.8%.57.2%..0.0%..0.0%..0.0%..0.0%..0.0%..0.0%..0.0%
3...0.0%..0.0%.27.0%.30.7%.17.4%.25.0%..0.0%..0.0%..0.0%
4...0.0%..0.0%.11.4%.25.0%.27.9%.26.6%..9.2%..0.0%..0.0%
5...0.0%..0.0%.30.4%.10.9%.19.7%.11.2%.27.8%..0.0%..0.0%
6...0.0%..0.0%.24.8%.16.3%.25.8%.14.5%.18.5%..0.0%..0.0%
7...0.0%..0.0%..6.4%.17.1%..9.2%.22.7%.44.5%..0.0%..0.0%
8...0.0%..0.0%..0.0%..0.0%..0.0%..0.0%..0.0%.82.8%.17.2%
9...0.0%..0.0%..0.0%..0.0%..0.0%..0.0%..0.0%.17.2%.82.8%