Post by mikeb on Jan 31, 2006 13:24:08 GMT -6
as requested:
BracketBuster reaction
posted: Tuesday, January 31, 2006
The pairings are out for the Feb. 17-19 BracketBuster weekend, specifically the 13 games to be aired that Saturday by ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU. At a glance, here were my first thoughts:
Who has the most to gain?
Bucknell. Everyone knows about the Bison now, especially if you live in Kansas. What we don't know is whether or not the Patriot League could ever get a second team into the NCAA Tournament. It says here, though, that Bucknell would indeed be selected as an at-large if it wins its BracketBuster game at Northern Iowa (InsideRPI No. 13) and then stays perfect until the Patriot League Tournament. In that scenario, the Bison would own victories at Syracuse (No. 32), at DePaul (No. 68), and at UNI, plus a homecourt drubbing of No. 39 Saint Joseph's. Personally, I'd give the Bison a long look even without a win at Northern Iowa, provided the game is competitive.
Who has the most to lose?
Wichita State. Everyone (me included) seems to have the Missouri Valley Conference locked into a record four NCAA bids. But a closer look at Wichita State leads me to say, "Not so fast." No one has been a greater proponent of the Valley than yours truly, but the Shockers have the weakest profile of the league's top four. WSU is 0-3 against Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois and Creighton, and its best nonleague win came at home over No. 61 Providence. In fact, Wichita's best credential is probably a loss -- by a point to Illinois on a neutral court -- so a visit from underrated George Mason (InsideRPI No. 36) could tilt the Shockers' season either way.
Who is the best team in the field?
Northern Iowa. Hands down, the Panthers are the best team in BracketBuster history. UNI's profile -- InsideRPI No. 13, NonConf RPI No. 14, 5-1 vs. RPI Top 50, 9-2 road/neutral record -- isn't in any way "mid-major." The Panthers are a No. 5 seed (and rising!) in our latest bracket projection. If Northern Iowa can split a pair of nasty road games at Creighton and at Southern Illinois, plus knock off Bucknell in the BracketBuster, a top-four NCAA seed should be in store. It's also worth noting that UNI's most explosive player, Eric Crawford, is due back from injury in late February.
Who is the best team you've never heard of? Utah State. You'd have to go with the Aggies, who will host Northwestern State in the BracketBuster. New to the WAC, the Aggies are continuing their winning ways despite a significant step up in class from the Big West. U-State has already knocked off current leader Louisiana Tech and preseason favorite Nevada (on the road) to make this week's "last four out" list. The Aggies gave Arizona a scare in last year's NCAA Tournament and were shut out of the dance in 2004 despite a No. 21 poll ranking. Expect Utah State to play with an even bigger chip on its shoulder whenever the national TV cameras are nearby.
Bracket Bits
• The last winless team in Division I (non-Baylor category) finally won Monday night. Everyone give it up for Morgan State, which knocked off Howard 79-75 in a MEAC tussle at Hill Field House in Baltimore. The Bears "raised" their record to 1-18, while Howard "fell" to 2-16. The big rematch is Feb. 27 in the nation's capital.
• So much for that big Ohio Valley Conference showdown at Murray State. In a battle of the OVC co-leaders, the Racers held Samford at 19 points in each half to run away with a 59-38 victory. The Bulldogs shot just 28.3 percent from the field and fall a full game behind Murray in the league standings. Samford had defeated Murray State 61-50 on its home floor the week before Christmas.
Bracket Banter
Hey, Joe, I was just browsing your recently updated Bracketology and I failed to see Stanford's name anywhere, not even in the "last four out" or the "next four out." I find this very peculiar.
I don't know if you caught the game last night, but it was a thrilling victory over Washington in overtime. I think that game will jump-start Stanford. [The Cardinal have] won six of seven, and [are] sitting just one [game] back in the Pac-10.
I guess if Stanford wins the Pac-10, you guys will have to respect them a little bit. It seems that nobody thinks that Stanford will make the NCAA Tourney, but [it] will. [The Cardinal] are surging at the moment, and I think if they win two of their next three road games in the Pac-10 -- and win at Gonzaga -- I have to be feeling good that they will get in.
Jacob Rockweiler
Nothing peculiar here, Jacob. Stanford made it onto the at-large board this week for the first time (at No. 81), a step in the right direction but not yet among the "last four" or "next four" out. Remember, this is still a team with a sub-100 RPI (No. 110, even with the win over Washington) and a nonconference schedule rated No. 302. Finally, its second-place Pac-10 status is mitigated by it being only the No. 7-rated conference this season. Washington, at No. 15 in the polls but No. 57 in the RPI, might qualify as the most overrated team in the country.
Can Stanford make the NCAAs? Sure. Was last night's win enough? Not nearly.
Kentucky gets a No. 9 seed. Vandy is not even in the last four out. RPIs [at the time were] No. 62 and No. 63, respectively, I believe. Kentucky's marquee win is Iona! Are you kidding me? At home, too.
Vandy has won at Georgetown and, oh yeah, at Kentucky. Vandy did have the loss at home to South Carolina, who would have won at Kentucky had it not been for a Rondo prayer with a second to go, and at Georgia Tech, but Kentucky was destroyed by both Kansas and Indiana.
Kentucky is 7-3 in the last 10, while Vandy is 6-4. Although wins, Kentucky has three wins by two points, including at home against Central Florida. It's a team that could easily be 9-6. There is not that much difference in these profiles, and Vandy has the head-to-head win in Lexington with Randolph Morris playing.
How is Kentucky in this solidly and Vandy so far removed?
Thanks,
John Betz
You do this long enough, you can almost write the answers before the questions come. Let's go to the tape:
Place table heading here
KENTUCKY VANDERBILT
RPI No. 35 No. 48
SOS No. 23 No. 48
NonConf RPI No. 25 No. 40
NonConf SOS No. 31 No. 134
Conf. Record 4-2 3-3
Conf. SOS No. 28 No. 63
Road/Neutral 6-3 3-3
Last 10 7-3 6-4
vs. Top 100 8-6 3-4
Even liking Vandy as I do, there's just no way the lone head-to-head win over Kentucky is enough to tilt the scale in the Commodores' direction. More recently, Kentucky has won four in a row and Vandy has dropped three of four.
Sorry John, it's really not close.
BracketBuster reaction
posted: Tuesday, January 31, 2006
The pairings are out for the Feb. 17-19 BracketBuster weekend, specifically the 13 games to be aired that Saturday by ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU. At a glance, here were my first thoughts:
Who has the most to gain?
Bucknell. Everyone knows about the Bison now, especially if you live in Kansas. What we don't know is whether or not the Patriot League could ever get a second team into the NCAA Tournament. It says here, though, that Bucknell would indeed be selected as an at-large if it wins its BracketBuster game at Northern Iowa (InsideRPI No. 13) and then stays perfect until the Patriot League Tournament. In that scenario, the Bison would own victories at Syracuse (No. 32), at DePaul (No. 68), and at UNI, plus a homecourt drubbing of No. 39 Saint Joseph's. Personally, I'd give the Bison a long look even without a win at Northern Iowa, provided the game is competitive.
Who has the most to lose?
Wichita State. Everyone (me included) seems to have the Missouri Valley Conference locked into a record four NCAA bids. But a closer look at Wichita State leads me to say, "Not so fast." No one has been a greater proponent of the Valley than yours truly, but the Shockers have the weakest profile of the league's top four. WSU is 0-3 against Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois and Creighton, and its best nonleague win came at home over No. 61 Providence. In fact, Wichita's best credential is probably a loss -- by a point to Illinois on a neutral court -- so a visit from underrated George Mason (InsideRPI No. 36) could tilt the Shockers' season either way.
Who is the best team in the field?
Northern Iowa. Hands down, the Panthers are the best team in BracketBuster history. UNI's profile -- InsideRPI No. 13, NonConf RPI No. 14, 5-1 vs. RPI Top 50, 9-2 road/neutral record -- isn't in any way "mid-major." The Panthers are a No. 5 seed (and rising!) in our latest bracket projection. If Northern Iowa can split a pair of nasty road games at Creighton and at Southern Illinois, plus knock off Bucknell in the BracketBuster, a top-four NCAA seed should be in store. It's also worth noting that UNI's most explosive player, Eric Crawford, is due back from injury in late February.
Who is the best team you've never heard of? Utah State. You'd have to go with the Aggies, who will host Northwestern State in the BracketBuster. New to the WAC, the Aggies are continuing their winning ways despite a significant step up in class from the Big West. U-State has already knocked off current leader Louisiana Tech and preseason favorite Nevada (on the road) to make this week's "last four out" list. The Aggies gave Arizona a scare in last year's NCAA Tournament and were shut out of the dance in 2004 despite a No. 21 poll ranking. Expect Utah State to play with an even bigger chip on its shoulder whenever the national TV cameras are nearby.
Bracket Bits
• The last winless team in Division I (non-Baylor category) finally won Monday night. Everyone give it up for Morgan State, which knocked off Howard 79-75 in a MEAC tussle at Hill Field House in Baltimore. The Bears "raised" their record to 1-18, while Howard "fell" to 2-16. The big rematch is Feb. 27 in the nation's capital.
• So much for that big Ohio Valley Conference showdown at Murray State. In a battle of the OVC co-leaders, the Racers held Samford at 19 points in each half to run away with a 59-38 victory. The Bulldogs shot just 28.3 percent from the field and fall a full game behind Murray in the league standings. Samford had defeated Murray State 61-50 on its home floor the week before Christmas.
Bracket Banter
Hey, Joe, I was just browsing your recently updated Bracketology and I failed to see Stanford's name anywhere, not even in the "last four out" or the "next four out." I find this very peculiar.
I don't know if you caught the game last night, but it was a thrilling victory over Washington in overtime. I think that game will jump-start Stanford. [The Cardinal have] won six of seven, and [are] sitting just one [game] back in the Pac-10.
I guess if Stanford wins the Pac-10, you guys will have to respect them a little bit. It seems that nobody thinks that Stanford will make the NCAA Tourney, but [it] will. [The Cardinal] are surging at the moment, and I think if they win two of their next three road games in the Pac-10 -- and win at Gonzaga -- I have to be feeling good that they will get in.
Jacob Rockweiler
Nothing peculiar here, Jacob. Stanford made it onto the at-large board this week for the first time (at No. 81), a step in the right direction but not yet among the "last four" or "next four" out. Remember, this is still a team with a sub-100 RPI (No. 110, even with the win over Washington) and a nonconference schedule rated No. 302. Finally, its second-place Pac-10 status is mitigated by it being only the No. 7-rated conference this season. Washington, at No. 15 in the polls but No. 57 in the RPI, might qualify as the most overrated team in the country.
Can Stanford make the NCAAs? Sure. Was last night's win enough? Not nearly.
Kentucky gets a No. 9 seed. Vandy is not even in the last four out. RPIs [at the time were] No. 62 and No. 63, respectively, I believe. Kentucky's marquee win is Iona! Are you kidding me? At home, too.
Vandy has won at Georgetown and, oh yeah, at Kentucky. Vandy did have the loss at home to South Carolina, who would have won at Kentucky had it not been for a Rondo prayer with a second to go, and at Georgia Tech, but Kentucky was destroyed by both Kansas and Indiana.
Kentucky is 7-3 in the last 10, while Vandy is 6-4. Although wins, Kentucky has three wins by two points, including at home against Central Florida. It's a team that could easily be 9-6. There is not that much difference in these profiles, and Vandy has the head-to-head win in Lexington with Randolph Morris playing.
How is Kentucky in this solidly and Vandy so far removed?
Thanks,
John Betz
You do this long enough, you can almost write the answers before the questions come. Let's go to the tape:
Place table heading here
KENTUCKY VANDERBILT
RPI No. 35 No. 48
SOS No. 23 No. 48
NonConf RPI No. 25 No. 40
NonConf SOS No. 31 No. 134
Conf. Record 4-2 3-3
Conf. SOS No. 28 No. 63
Road/Neutral 6-3 3-3
Last 10 7-3 6-4
vs. Top 100 8-6 3-4
Even liking Vandy as I do, there's just no way the lone head-to-head win over Kentucky is enough to tilt the scale in the Commodores' direction. More recently, Kentucky has won four in a row and Vandy has dropped three of four.
Sorry John, it's really not close.