Post by PantherLou on Mar 24, 2005 10:30:14 GMT -6
Ok, here is my rationale:
From JS online:
According to an ESPN Insider computer simulation of 100 games between Illinois and UWM, the Illini win 75% of the time and by an average score of 75-65.
The simulations were run by whatifsports.com based on season statistics of the teams and the players. Each game was simulated with a degree of randomness.
The computer was 25-7 in the first round of the NCAA tournament last week.
Now, I understand that accoring to this alnalysis, we would have a 25% chance of winning each game played. However, I do not feel that the computer takes into account the increase in proabablity of an upset the first game that two teams play. The underdog's style, players, and tempo is unknown, thus increasing the chances of winning that first game. In addition, there is a much greater probability that the favorite will take this first game lightly.
I feel that the likelihood of an underdog winning its FIRST game against a stronger opponent is at least double the likelihood of any other game they may play. So...
25% in a random meeting x 2 (first game factors) = 50% chance of winning this first game.
I claim we have as good a chance as Illinois does tonight!!! Take the money line and thank me later!!!
From JS online:
According to an ESPN Insider computer simulation of 100 games between Illinois and UWM, the Illini win 75% of the time and by an average score of 75-65.
The simulations were run by whatifsports.com based on season statistics of the teams and the players. Each game was simulated with a degree of randomness.
The computer was 25-7 in the first round of the NCAA tournament last week.
Now, I understand that accoring to this alnalysis, we would have a 25% chance of winning each game played. However, I do not feel that the computer takes into account the increase in proabablity of an upset the first game that two teams play. The underdog's style, players, and tempo is unknown, thus increasing the chances of winning that first game. In addition, there is a much greater probability that the favorite will take this first game lightly.
I feel that the likelihood of an underdog winning its FIRST game against a stronger opponent is at least double the likelihood of any other game they may play. So...
25% in a random meeting x 2 (first game factors) = 50% chance of winning this first game.
I claim we have as good a chance as Illinois does tonight!!! Take the money line and thank me later!!!
