Wow, I can't believe they say we have even a 5% chance of an at-large berth if we lose at Hawaii. That's just not right.
Anyways, here's my BB "breakdown"
2005 ESPN Bracket Buster Saturday Games, February 19
(RPI as of Thursday Feb 17)
41 Wichita State (18-5) at 30 Miami (Ohio) (16-6) - 11:00 p.m. - ESPN2
53 Arkansas-Little Rock (16-8) at 90 Bowling Green (15-7) - 12:00 p.m. - Full Court
14 Vermont (19-4) at 26 Nevada (19-5) - 1:00 p.m. - ESPN2
96 Western Michigan (16-9) at 51 Northern Iowa (18-8) - 3:00 p.m. - ESPN2
88 Drexel (13-10) at 105 Ball State (12-10) - 4:00 p.m. - Full Court
157 Murray State (14-10) at 94 Rice (13-9) - 4:00 p.m. - Full Court
13 Southern Illinois (21-6) at 48 Kent State (16-9) - 5:00 p.m. - ESPN2
47 Buffalo (16-7) at 142 Fresno State (14-9) - 6:00 p.m. - Full Court
69 Wisconsin-Milwaukee (20-5) at 95 Hawaii (14-7) - 7:00 p.m. - ESPN2
128 Illinois State (16-9) at 103 Wisconsin-Green Bay (17-7) - 8:00 p.m. - Full Court
68 UTEP (20-6) at 25 #19 Pacific (21-2) - 11:00 p.m. - ESPN
Other Horizon League Games
227 Eastern Michigan (12-12) at 322 Youngstown State (4-18) - 1:00 p.m.
244 Cleveland State (9-11) at 258 Central Michigan (8-15) - 1:00 p.m.
175 Valparaiso (14-12) at 268 Butler (9-13) - 1:00 p.m.
154 Georgia Southern (16-10) at 149 UIC (12-12) - 3:00 p.m.
87 Ohio (13-9) at 226 Detroit (10-14) - 3:05 p.m.
181 Northern Illinois (9-14) at 193 Wright State (12-13) - 6:00 p.m.
249 Loyola (9-16) at 189 Evansville (11-12) - 7:05 p.m.
Other Important Games
164 Manhattan (13-11) at 159 George Mason (15-10)
Horizon League RPI - Through games of Thursday, Feb 17
Non conference aggregate record: 26-49 vs. Division 1
RPI rank: 15 Non conference SOS rank: 2
(D-1 games only)
Overall W-L -- Conf W-L -- Overall RPI SOS -- Non-Conf RPI SOS
Wisconsin Milwaukee 18-5 13-2 69 233 57 94
Wisconsin Green Bay 16-7 10-4 103 240 49 101
Illinois Chicago 10-11 7-7 149 130 21 4
Wright St. 12-13 7-7 193 193 101 28
Detroit 9-14 7-7 226 181 261 117
Loyola Chicago 8-16 7-8 249 191 279 87
Cleveland St. 7-13 6-8 244 208 217 22
Butler 8-14 5-9 268 242 263 230
Youngstown St. 2-20 2-12 322 227 325 227
Non-Conf Opp. RPI rank
1. Kansas 1
2. Wisconsin 15
3. Hawaii 95
4. Air Force 121
5. Manhattan 164
6. Valpo 175
7. Purdue 205
8. St. Louis 215
9. Pr. View 316
Current RPI resume (2 games remaining)
1-50........0-2
51-100.....0-0
101-200....7-2
201+.......11-1
Best Possible Likely Movement Scenario(with winning out) Regular season
1-50........0-2
51-100.....3-1 Win@Hawaii
101-200...8-2
201+.......9-0 Win@CSU
Most of this I just directly copied from Ken Pomeroy's RPI website. It's amazing just how down the conference was in the non-conference season. Granted, the Horizon played the second toughest non-conf schedule out of 31 D-1 conferences, but the lack of quality wins along with some atrocious losses i.e. Detroit (with Cotton!) losing to Chicago St. just really dragged everybody's RPI down. It sounds crazy, but last years 4th place team had an RPI 83 spots better than this years 4th place team does, and last years 7th team is better of this years 5th!
Anyways, I determined what our best case possible RPI resume was just by looking at how our opponents could (reasonably) finish, such as UWGB and AF moving into the Top 100 (easily if GB wins their BB game and AF wins the majority of their remaining MWC games-with the exception of vs Utah of course), and Detroit, Purdue, and St. Louis winning a few games to get back into the Top 200. To me, if these things don't materialize, one thing sure won't for us: a 12 seed.
-Jason
