Updated: Feb. 15, 2005
By Joe Lunardi
Special to ESPN Insider
I love Bracket Buster Saturday. Always have. Always will. Think it's long overdue that good teams get great spotlight on a day all their own.
I just don't think it means all that much. Excellent exposure? Yes. Improved NCAA chances? Not really.
Until this year. And until the re-weighted RPI formula resulted in over-the-top rankings for some of the teams involved.
Selection Committee members can't help but ask themselves: Is Southern Illinois really No. 14 (its current InsideRPI ranking)? Or Vermont No. 16 after losing over the weekend? One could have similar questions about Bracket Buster participants Miami-Ohio (No. 20), Pacific (No. 25) or Wichita State (No. 29)?
So, instead of evaluating each Bracket Buster game, let's take a closer look at the teams whose NCAA at-large chances are under the microscope this coming weekend (we'll be adding more capsules throughout the week, so check back each day):
COMING UP THIS WEEK
Wednesday: Kent State, Northern Iowa
Thursday: UTEP, Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Friday: Non-Bracket Buster mid-majors
[RPI (old) is the team's RPI under last year's formula. Adj. record is the team's record for purposes of computing RPI under this year's formula.]
WICHITA STATE
Key data
Record 18-4
Conf. Record 11-3 (t-1 MVC)
InsideRPI 30
SOS 168
NonConf SOS 262
RPI (old) 36
Adj. Record 17.2-3.2
The Skinny: The major difference between Wichita State and Southern Illinois is schedule strength, particularly out of conference. This makes a regular-season MVC title even more important to the Shockers than to SIU. And it won't be easy to get, as WSU is playing all of the Valley's top teams -- plus the Bracket Buster at Miami (OH) -- in the final three weeks. It says here that the Shockers need one or the other -- a regular-season crown (in the No. 8 conference) or a Bracket Buster win -- to feel comfortable about an at-large bid. Otherwise, that awful NonConf SOS number is going to haunt them.
Outlook: Chance of NCAA at-large bid, if needed, 85 percent (with a win at Miami (OH)), 70 percent (with a loss).
NEVADA
Key data
Record 17-5
Conf. Record 11-2 (1st, MWC)
InsideRPI 33
SOS 86
NonConf SOS 100
RPI (old) 29
Adj. Record 16.6-5.4
The Skinny: Nevada is the only team here to have a better RPI under the old formula, mainly because it has lost three home games while losing only twice on the road. Its most recent road win -- at UTEP -- was enormous. The Wolf Pack are now on track for an outright WAC regular-season title (No. 12 conference), and that would virtually assure them of an at-large NCAA bid (if needed). Nevada has a two-game conference lead with five to play. As such, its Bracket Buster visit from Vermont is not as significant as its remaining WAC games. The Wolf Pack are playing for seeding on Saturday, not tournament selection.
Outlook: Chance of NCAA at-large bid, if needed, 90 percent (win or lose vs. UTEP).
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Key data
Record 19-6
Conf. Record 11-3 (t-1 MVC)
InsideRPI 14
SOS 42
NonConf SOS 57
RPI (old) 22
Adj. Record 16.2-3.6
The Skinny: Even without an InsideRPI Top 50 win, SIU is in excellent shape should it fail to win the Missouri Valley tournament. The Salukis have built plenty of RPI points in the 51-100 range of opponents (8-4) and by winning five of 11 road games. The number of SIU opponents in that range is a testament to the depth of the MVC (No. 8 conference). A regular-season championship or co-championship, or even a close second-place finish, should get the Salukis into the NCAA Tournament. The Bracket Buster game at Kent State is more important to potential NCAA seeding than selection.
Outlook: Chance of NCAA at-large bid, if needed: 90 percent (win or lose at Kent State).
VERMONT
Key data
Record 18-4
Conf. Record 13-1 (1st, A-East)
InsideRPI 16
SOS 89
NonConf SOS 38
RPI (old) 36
Adj. Record 17.2-2.4
The Skinny: Vermont would be the committee's toughest test should it not win the America East (No. 15 conference) tournament. Who could deny a retiring Tom Brennan the chance to win his school's first-ever NCAA game on St. Patrick's Day? More critically, are two Top-50 wins (@holy Cross, Boston U) enough to counter the Catamounts having won 14 of 18 versus sub-150 opponents? And just two of their eight RPI-boosting road wins are Top 150 (hence the 20-spot difference compared to the old formula). No one has a more important Bracket Buster encounter than Vermont's trip to Nevada.
Outlook: Chance of NCAA at-large bid, if needed: 70 percent with a win at Nevada, 50 percent with a loss.
MIAMI (OH)
Key data
Record 14-6
Conf. Record 10-3 (1st, MAC)
InsideRPI 20
SOS 50
NonConf SOS 194
RPI (old) 49
Adj. Record 12.4-3.6
The Skinny: An outright MAC regular-season champion (No. 10 conference) will almost certainly receive an NCAA at-large bid. This is Miami's best calling card, especially given its weak non-conference schedule and hugely inflated new RPI. The RedHawks are riding their 11 road games, which is fine, but their best road win came at Ball State (No. 105), which is not. Not sure beating Wichita State at home is going to do much for them either way. For Miami, it's all about the conference finish.
Outlook: Chance of NCAA at-large bid, if needed: 75 percent (win or lose vs. Wichita State).
PACIFIC
Key data
Record 20-2
Conf. Record 14-0 (1st, Big West)
InsideRPI 25
SOS 182
NonConf SOS 61
RPI (old) 29
Adj. Record 20.8-2
The Skinny: Pacific is going to the NCAA Tournament, period. The Tigers' non-conference schedule strength, 11-1 road record and 16-game winning streak are pretty hard to ignore. And, if the ESPN/USA Today ranking is any indication of the coach's advisory committee input to the NCAA selection process, Pacific can exhale. By comparison, Utah State, which missed the tournament last year, had an RPI in the 70s and a NonConf SOS double that of this year's Tigers.
Outlook: Chance of NCAA at-large bid, if needed: 95 percent (win or lose vs. UTEP).
