Post by Duct_Tape_Pounce on Jun 6, 2023 16:21:28 GMT -6
After a few hours of stewing on the news about the Charlotte opening, I think there’s a nontrivial chance that Lundy does go there, but it’s still a lot more likely than not that he stays here. Obviously, this situation will remind many of us of the 2017 offseason with LaVall Jordan. However, there are a few differing factors:
1. While there is a fairly significant difference between the salary Milwaukee can offer and the salary Charlotte can offer at this point, that $700,000 buyout would have to be considered by Charlotte as a cost of hiring Lundy. If they were to offer Lundy a 5 year deal, that would be $140,000 a year. They’d also have to think Lundy is $700,000 better than the next best option.
2. With LaVall Jordan, there was no doubt whatsoever that he would take the job if Butler offered it. Butler paid its coach 7 figures (or thereabouts) , and Butler was LaVall’s dream job. If it worked better there, it would have taken a blue blood program to make him consider going anywhere else. Charlotte’s salary exceeds Milwaukee’s, but it’s not 7 figures, and it would likely be another stepping stone job for Lundy.
3. Charlotte is not Butler and the AAC is not the Big East. Heck, with Houston and Cincinnati leaving the conference, I don’t know that it is better than the MVC right now. Maybe a more apt comparison would be Jeter to Butler? No doubt it’s better than the Horizon, but I don’t know that it’s a multi bid conference right now. I suppose Memphis and SMU can replace these other teams to a point, but they’re far from their best days.
4. If Lundy’s goal is a high major program, staying at Milwaukee with a strong program he built (and after the transfer portal closed) is likely a better ticket to national prominence via the NCAA Tournament than at Charlotte with a team of players he did not recruit for his system. Obviously, he could raid our program a bit next year if he wanted to, but a lot of things can happen in a year.
5. Let’s say the worst case scenario does happen and Lundy does leave. It’s a realistic scenario. I am encouraged that Braun was looking for past success at a lower level in the coaching search this year. I remember Adam Schemm tweeting something about that being a top quality in a coach search. Now, that might mean we have to hire a coach with an interim tag this year and continue our search next offseason, but I have some confidence we aren’t just going to go with the easy hire like PBS next time.
I guess my uneducated guess on the odds of Lundy leaving are that they are somewhere in the realm of 25-30%. I could be way too low or the odds could be essentially 0. I don’t know, that’s just the way I’m thinking. I hope he stays, obviously.
1. While there is a fairly significant difference between the salary Milwaukee can offer and the salary Charlotte can offer at this point, that $700,000 buyout would have to be considered by Charlotte as a cost of hiring Lundy. If they were to offer Lundy a 5 year deal, that would be $140,000 a year. They’d also have to think Lundy is $700,000 better than the next best option.
2. With LaVall Jordan, there was no doubt whatsoever that he would take the job if Butler offered it. Butler paid its coach 7 figures (or thereabouts) , and Butler was LaVall’s dream job. If it worked better there, it would have taken a blue blood program to make him consider going anywhere else. Charlotte’s salary exceeds Milwaukee’s, but it’s not 7 figures, and it would likely be another stepping stone job for Lundy.
3. Charlotte is not Butler and the AAC is not the Big East. Heck, with Houston and Cincinnati leaving the conference, I don’t know that it is better than the MVC right now. Maybe a more apt comparison would be Jeter to Butler? No doubt it’s better than the Horizon, but I don’t know that it’s a multi bid conference right now. I suppose Memphis and SMU can replace these other teams to a point, but they’re far from their best days.
4. If Lundy’s goal is a high major program, staying at Milwaukee with a strong program he built (and after the transfer portal closed) is likely a better ticket to national prominence via the NCAA Tournament than at Charlotte with a team of players he did not recruit for his system. Obviously, he could raid our program a bit next year if he wanted to, but a lot of things can happen in a year.
5. Let’s say the worst case scenario does happen and Lundy does leave. It’s a realistic scenario. I am encouraged that Braun was looking for past success at a lower level in the coaching search this year. I remember Adam Schemm tweeting something about that being a top quality in a coach search. Now, that might mean we have to hire a coach with an interim tag this year and continue our search next offseason, but I have some confidence we aren’t just going to go with the easy hire like PBS next time.
I guess my uneducated guess on the odds of Lundy leaving are that they are somewhere in the realm of 25-30%. I could be way too low or the odds could be essentially 0. I don’t know, that’s just the way I’m thinking. I hope he stays, obviously.