Just let’s wait and see as long as we win is all I care about but one of those guys you named won’t be starting I don’t know which one yet
but I wait to Oct 31st then we will have our answers.We'll have our answers on October 31st? You must be new.
Last year, Bryce Barnes and Vance Johnson started in both the exhibition and regular season openers. They would go on to start 21 games combined last season. The year before, Jeremy Johnson started both and ended up starting 10 games.
Te'Jon Lucas and Darius Roy are pretty much locked in to start, I don't think anyone is thinking anything different there. Abram and Allen are returning starters and probably shouldn't lose their spots just because.
But I'm wondering if Harrison Henderson is being assumed as the fifth starter just because he's coming from a high-major, he's 6'10" and he was a 3-star recruit on Rivals.
I haven't seen the team play in person this fall yet, so if I'm off base feel free to tell me, but doesn't that guy sound familiar to you guys? Isn't this suspiciously looking like Mitch Carter 2.0?
Mitch played 4.3 minutes per game his last year at South Carolina. Harrison played 2.4 minutes per game in his last season at USC.
Mostly, we need him to be a stalwart on the defensive end. His length is great, but the whole team has length. The Panthers weren't a bad defensive team last season, so
I see a few problems with this team that I want to see addressed out of the gate.
How is
outside shooting going to be addressed? With Jake Wright gone, Darius Roy is the only proven dangerous three-point shooter left on the team. DeAndre Abram is the only other player on the team who even merits consideration on the outside. Te'Jon Lucas only took 51 three-point attempts in 1262 minutes on the floor for the Illini, about half the rate of Bryce Barnes. Josh Thomas is probably the 'best' answer here - his 37.4% last year from outside at least commands respect on that end - but he's not a knock-down shooter that's going to spread the floor considerably. If Arturro Bingham is able to find his way on the court, that should help them since he's also a respectable outside shooter. But if Thomas and Bingham are lacking in minutes, I'm a little worried on how the team is supposed to be
This is hard to swallow because Wright, for all his shortcomings, was a solid three-point shooter. But the Panthers as a team weren't even average by Horizon League standards, and a lot of possessions ended up getting bogged down and crunched, causing defenses to pack it in against Milwaukee. This lack of spread caused the team to not get many offensive rebounds, which lost them more opportunities on the offensive end.
Te'Jon Lucas is a great pickup, but his strengths don't cover some of the more glaring weaknesses of the team except for
maybe perimeter defense, and definitely
ball handling. He's likely going to be asked to play something over 30 minutes per game, and if he is I don't see the Panthers getting a big boost offensively.
The Four Factors of Basketball are the best way of seeing, through statistics, who wins in a game. The team that wins the majority of the Four Factors is by far the most likely team to win the game. They are:
Effective Field Goal Percentage: Milwaukee was 9th in FG% and 8th in 3PT FG% in the conference last year. Of players who shot 90 or more times from the field last season, Vance Johnson (2nd FG%) and Jake Wright (2nd 3PT%) are gone.
Turnover Percentage: Milwaukee was dead last in the conference last year. Good news: Bryce Barnes, who was a heavy problem part, is gone. Bad news: everyone else causing problems is still around. Jake Wright and Vance Johnson were not problem turnover players.
Rebounding Percentage: Milwaukee was 5th in offensive rebounding and 6th in defensive rebounding last year. Vance Johnson, second on the team, is gone.
Free Throw Rate: Good news, Milwaukee was the best free-throw shooting team in the conference last year. Bad news: they shot fewer free throws than anyone but YSU, and their two best FT% shooters (Johnson and Wright) are gone.
Basically, if the team can get better shooting from the outside, they should help their rebounding percentage and open the floor for slashers like Darius Roy. But with Roy being the only returnee with great outside shooting, it's going to be up to some new guys and maybe some other guys to get better.
I'll be watching how the team spreads the floor.
