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Post by BBFran on Nov 24, 2018 20:32:32 GMT -6
The Lost Horizon League is, as of this writing, 2-12 against the top 100 teams as ranked by kenpom. One of these wins was against #97 Toledo. The "better" win (by IUPUI) was against #71 BC -- which is picked to finish 12th in the 14 team ACC.
I count about 19 more opportunities for LHL teams to play top 100 teams. There may be a few more in tournaments that I'm not familiar with. (For example, if Milwaukee beats Buffalo in Belfast, it would likely play San Francisco, a top 100 team. If it loses it would likely play Stephen F. Austin, which is not.) So just to get to a dismal .333 record against top 100 teams, the LHL would need to go at least 9-10 in those 19 games. Don't bet your paycheck on that.
Once league play starts, of course, there will be no more chances for any league team to get a top 100 win. In fact, there are still no LHL teams ranked in the top third of all college teams (117 or better) much less top 100.
This isn't a "glass half empty/glass half full" comparison. The best you can say about the Lost Horizon glass is that it seems to have a sticky wet residue of something unpleasant at the bottom.
The practical meaning of this is that the LHL is now many leagues away from being a multi-bid league under any circumstances. And just as a rising tide lifts all boats, a receding tide leaves them beached.
Butler and Loyola and Valpo saw it coming and positioned themselves -- and had the administrative competence to make it happen. We didn't.
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SRT4driver
Junior
We Are MILWAUKEE! And I'm all about accountability, unlike '5th Placer' Jeter apologists.
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Post by SRT4driver on Nov 25, 2018 20:17:31 GMT -6
Nothing you said is wrong. I'm merely choosing to look at the positives, because sports is supposed to be fun. I've also in the past said all of the same things you just did, and I continue to.
Btw, and it may have just been a typo, but the ACC has 15 members in basketball, 14 in football (Notre Dame is ind.)
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Post by tom22 on Nov 28, 2018 21:52:26 GMT -6
Current (Nov 28, 2018) kenpom rankings for Horizon League teams: Northern Kentucky 122 Wright State 133 Univ of IL - Chicago 185 Green Bay 198 IUPUI 200 Milwaukee 248 Oakland 250 Detroit 270 Cleveland State 301 Youngstown St. 323
Its interesting how these numbers are continuously changing as various games are completed. At first IUPUI was ranked #194. It later dropped to 200 - after they beat Bradley. Kind of strange. (Bradley's rank dropped from 110 to 115 after losing to IUPUI.)
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Post by striker14 on Nov 29, 2018 19:32:11 GMT -6
Consolidation at the top really killed mid-major conferences. I doubt we'll ever see more than 1-2 at large bids outside of the top 8 conferences. It sucks but really it no longer matters if you are the 10th best conference or the 32nd best, we're all getting one bid and playing a 1-4 seed. I think we can be relatively successful in the Horizon, maybe compete for a bid every couple of years, possibly even make a run in the tournament at some point. However, we are fooling ourselves if we think the HL can compete with bigger, better funded, better known conferences with stronger histories. Personally, at this point I'd be pretty satisfied with a team consistently competing for top 4 in the conference and an NCAA berth every few years.
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Post by BBFran on Dec 2, 2018 11:19:45 GMT -6
Congrats to Lost Horizon stalwart Green Bay, which yesterday achieved the conference's third win over a top 100 team when it defeated Belmont at home. (Belmont was rated 73 going in; is rated 90 now.)
The rest of the league went 0-8 on the day.
In other stirring conference news, the LHL now has the honor of finally advancing a team into the top third of all D1 teams. There are 353 D1 programs, so to reach the top third a team has to be among the top 117. Northern Kentucky is now...117th! Unfortunately, the league overall slipped behind the Big Sky in the latest rankings.
One step forward, two steps back.
All rankings courtesy of kenpom on 12/2/18.
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Post by Cactus Panther on Dec 2, 2018 13:26:07 GMT -6
HL teams have been playing some very good high and mid-major programs. My compliments to the schedule makers of HL programs.
Saturday was not a good day for HL wins, but that is part of the flow of a season. Saturday was a very good day for the HL Debbie Downers and I-told-you-so crowd.
The analytics and rankings speak for themselves. Of course, I wish the HL went 8-0 yesterday. I wish all HL teams were undefeated in non-conference play. But competitive sports do not work that way. I still look forward to conference play as much as usual.
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Post by BBFran on Dec 2, 2018 15:48:36 GMT -6
Of course we should look forward to league play. With 5 teams BESIDES the Panthers below 200 in the rankings, things are looking...”up?”
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Post by tom22 on Dec 8, 2018 23:00:41 GMT -6
Here is the current Kenpom rankings (12-8-2018 - after the day's games):
N. Kentucky 125 Wright State 143 U I Chicago 173 IUPUI 192 Green Bay 203 Oakland 240 Cleveland St. 274 Milwaukee 282 Detroit 288 Youngstown St 329
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Post by BBFran on Dec 8, 2018 23:09:55 GMT -6
The league was 0-6 today.
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Post by Cactus Panther on Dec 27, 2018 19:49:23 GMT -6
Now that the D1 non-conference season is almost done for the season, it is noteworthy that most rating services rank the HL 18th out of 32 conferences. Although we all wish it would be higher, this is far from the gloomy outlook some had on here earlier.
Granted, the combined non-conference record of HL teams against D1 competition is well below .500. The relatively higher conference ranking of the HL is apparently because the SOS was one of the strongest, if not the strongest, of mid-major conferences.
I would rather have it this way than a good conference record against a lot of weak teams, like from the SWAC and MEAC. We see way too much of that out here in WAC-land. A competitive loss against a good team is much more entertaining than a blowout over a weak team. As I stated here previously, kudos to HL programs for generally great scheduling this season.
Bring on conference play! This is an exciting time of the season!
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Post by milwsport on Jan 15, 2019 0:37:00 GMT -6
Consolidation at the top really killed mid-major conferences. I doubt we'll ever see more than 1-2 at large bids outside of the top 8 conferences. It sucks but really it no longer matters if you are the 10th best conference or the 32nd best, we're all getting one bid and playing a 1-4 seed. I think we can be relatively successful in the Horizon, maybe compete for a bid every couple of years, possibly even make a run in the tournament at some point. However, we are fooling ourselves if we think the HL can compete with bigger, better funded, better known conferences with stronger histories. Personally, at this point I'd be pretty satisfied with a team consistently competing for top 4 in the conference and an NCAA berth every few years. Actually that's exactly what USED to happen in the HL. UWM, Butler, Wright State and UW-Green Bay used to REGULARLY beat teams in the top 8. And the HL had one of the best mid-major records in the NCAA Tourney. Now the league is considerably weaker than it once was and in my mind competing for a top 4 finish in the conference is not enough. I want a team that is worthy of this great university and the City it bears the name of. I don't think we'll ever be Duke, but when I see teams we used to beat regularly beating the daylights out of Power Conference teams while we struggle it gets me very frustrated. Some of our big rivals like Butler and Loyola did what it takes to get better and move up. We've taken the opposite course. The question is what needs to be done to get us moving in the right direction?
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Post by striker14 on Jan 15, 2019 15:17:28 GMT -6
Consolidation at the top really killed mid-major conferences. I doubt we'll ever see more than 1-2 at large bids outside of the top 8 conferences. It sucks but really it no longer matters if you are the 10th best conference or the 32nd best, we're all getting one bid and playing a 1-4 seed. I think we can be relatively successful in the Horizon, maybe compete for a bid every couple of years, possibly even make a run in the tournament at some point. However, we are fooling ourselves if we think the HL can compete with bigger, better funded, better known conferences with stronger histories. Personally, at this point I'd be pretty satisfied with a team consistently competing for top 4 in the conference and an NCAA berth every few years. Actually that's exactly what USED to happen in the HL. UWM, Butler, Wright State and UW-Green Bay used to REGULARLY beat teams in the top 8. And the HL had one of the best mid-major records in the NCAA Tourney. Now the league is considerably weaker than it once was and in my mind competing for a top 4 finish in the conference is not enough. I want a team that is worthy of this great university and the City it bears the name of. I don't think we'll ever be Duke, but when I see teams we used to beat regularly beating the daylights out of Power Conference teams while we struggle it gets me very frustrated. Some of our big rivals like Butler and Loyola did what it takes to get better and move up. We've taken the opposite course. The question is what needs to be done to get us moving in the right direction? It definitely bothers me seeing where Butler is right now. Loyola's run last year was cool for them, but I'm not sure that the MVC's long term prospects are really any better than the Horizon now that Wichita left. I personally believe that eventually Loyola and Valpo will see their move as a lateral one but I have been wrong in the past. I would love to see us become the kings of the Horizon and take the auto-bid every season, but that is somewhat of a pipe dream right now. I think with a practice facility, some coaching stability, and a little more institutional support we could see ourselves taking the first steps on the way. With the way mid-majors programs generally work I think top 4 most years with a bid every few, mix in some NITs here and there, and you have a recipe for a program that can draw 4-5,000 fans per game. That's when you start to get the money and resources to really start improving. I honestly wouldn't mind the Horizon picking up an 11th team either, go to a 20 game conference slate and make scheduling easier for everyone in the league. More D1 home games makes season tickets more valuable and drives more fan interest. Frankly, there are a lot of things I could see that could help get things moving in the right direction. Eh, ramblings of a dreamer.
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Post by PantherU on Jan 15, 2019 18:49:18 GMT -6
Nothing you said is wrong. I'm merely choosing to look at the positives, because sports is supposed to be fun. I would have liked to have had more people saying this over the last six years.
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Post by PantherU on Jan 15, 2019 19:16:21 GMT -6
It definitely bothers me seeing where Butler is right now. Loyola's run last year was cool for them, but I'm not sure that the MVC's long term prospects are really any better than the Horizon now that Wichita left. I personally believe that eventually Loyola and Valpo will see their move as a lateral one but I have been wrong in the past. Loyola has to figure out how to considerably drop the average age of its fan base. Having a 4,000-seat arena actually helps because they're close to making it a very tough ticket and you need that mystique to keep people fighting to get in the door. They've got everything lined up, now they just have to keep Porter Moser and set up a succession plan for when he moves on (which is likely). The MVC is fine; you just have to get the big $ alumni to become ravenous hoops fans so they can supplement your coach's income and keep him around. I think Loyola should entertain a potential A-10 move in the future, but the MVC is a good spot. Valpo is more *stuck* as they say. The MVC is perfect for them, I see no need to consider moves beyond there. Valpo just needs to work on getting that brand new basketball building everyone else knows they need. Then they need to work on building a wall around northwest Indiana and making the Crusaders the "home team" for all those Hoosiers and Boilermakers and Fighting Irish who are too far from the high-majors. I would love to see us become the kings of the Horizon and take the auto-bid every season, but that is somewhat of a pipe dream right now. I think with a practice facility, some coaching stability, and a little more institutional support we could see ourselves taking the first steps on the way. With the way mid-majors programs generally work I think top 4 most years with a bid every few, mix in some NITs here and there, and you have a recipe for a program that can draw 4-5,000 fans per game. That's when you start to get the money and resources to really start improving. I honestly wouldn't mind the Horizon picking up an 11th team either, go to a 20 game conference slate and make scheduling easier for everyone in the league. More D1 home games makes season tickets more valuable and drives more fan interest. Frankly, there are a lot of things I could see that could help get things moving in the right direction. Eh, ramblings of a dreamer. University leadership needs to understand what this basketball program can mean for them. Their job becomes a lot easier if the basketball program is successful. This has never been communicated to Mark Mone, or at least he hasn't bought it. I've had some thoughts that I've shared with some fellow members of the Black and Gold Club, but I'm not really ready to share most of that here because I'm still figuring out exactly what I want it to be. But I hope the BGC can help build something here.
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Post by Cactus Panther on Jan 15, 2019 20:08:34 GMT -6
Now you are talking, Jimmie. The Black and Gold Club already has passion and fortitude, but could use your strong voice to gather more followers and eventually have it's voice heard by those who have ultimate control over the program's future. Go for it!
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