Reasonable expectations, redux

[BBFran]

I asked this question last year. Time to ask again:


"The question is, what are reasonable expectations for this new staff? Unlike LJ, they haven't lost any players from last year, as far as I know. So how many wins is it reasonable to expect next year after last year's 11 win debacle? 12? 15? Remember that the H League will be much weaker without Valpo.

And let's assume that Baldwin won't be a one year non-wonder, a la Jordan. 15 wins is generally a year of about .500. In what year should we expect to break into clear above .500 territory -- say, 18 wins? Similarly, by when do you think we should reasonably expect to be back in the top 150 in the RPI/Kenpom/Sagarin type rankings?

After the chaos of the last few years, it will be practically impossible to interest casual fans or the local media in the team until it starts winning consistently. It's going to take that to have any chance to bring attendance back even to the pre-Klotsche-exile standard. When should we reasonably expect to get there?"

Well, the chaos continued. As predicted, our attendance crashed horrifically last year. We won 16 games total but had a losing record overall and a losing record in the worst HL in history. Our final kenpom ranking was 196. And then our three best players left.

So in year three of our AD's brilliant "plan" for the men's hoops program, where are we? What are reasonable expectations for THIS year? The "good" news is that the HL is actually WORSE than last year, hard as that is to imagine. The bad news is that our roster is almost entirely new and unproven and our coach is now telling us we will have an entirely new style of play (one that he has apparently never coached in all the years he was an assistant -- but I digress).

So predict away. How many wins this year and what will our final computer ranking be? Where will we finish in the HL? When will we next win 20 games in a season? What will the average actual attendance be this year? (We already know that the average announced attendance will exceed 1,000 per game. How do we know this? Because the announced attendance at the exhibition in the Klotsche last week was 1,014. Eyewitness report? 135!) When will actual home attendance get back just to the level of 2015-16?

[outflow]

I want the team to be competitive and finish in top half of a terrible Horizon league. The thing that is disheartening with any success is there will be another wave of transfers. That's where we are.

[Cactus Panther]

My expectations as a fan remain the same every season - watch the games and enjoy them for what they are.

Why expect a certain amount of wins, computer ranking, etc? If such expectations are low, you will not be very excited about the program (unless you are in the "I told you so" crowd - you may then be very excited to reiterate bitter feelings, perhaps). If such expectations are too high, you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

I am just a fan who pulls for my team to have success. It is entertainment, nothing more or less. If I had control of the situation, it would be much different, but I do not.

Go Panthers.

[73withharoldlee]

Great comments and I agree wholeheartedly. I tell my season ticket partner wait till next year. He laughs. We enjoy the games and recognize the student athletes play hard. I will say Tejohn Lucas will be the impact player “next year” and will be good for 8 to 10 wins. He is a player. We are lucky to have him. This is a fairly young team that will be better next year. Darius Roy can score. Abrams and Allen are coming back. Mitchell is raw but has great potential. Newsome can play and is back.
I like the fact that Baldwin recruits 6’6” and up. He has two more kids with length coming in next year. They will be fun to watch. Fans will come with wins and toughness. You gotta trust your coach to bring in the right mix. I for one will always give someone a chance. Did so for Antrim, Bo, Jeter, and Now Baldwin. Go Panthers.

[Spirit of Bruce]

Great to see we'll be hearing about Fran's "eyewitness" attendance counts for another season. Always a thrill following a home game!

[BBFran]

As soon as the Department starts reporting the attendance with something approaching observable reality, there will be no reason to report actual eyewitness accounts.

Don’t hold your breath.

[bizzork]

7 wins, rank of 284, 9th in the Horizon. Average actual attendance 610 per.

[nickpanther78]

If this team wins 8 games I will be surprised. They look awful.

[nickpanther]

after the last two wins, i'll say we'll finish around 13 wins, and enough wins in conference to make the league tourney under its new Top 8 format.

[SRT4driver]

It's early, and we have a very small sample size, but given the observed rate of improvement, I think this team has the potential to finish with a winning record, both overall and in-conference. Top 3 seems possible, which I would never have said 1-2 weeks ago.

[Super King]

4 losses so far. Two to high-major programs and the others by a combined 6 points. They will be fine.

[steveisback]

No hope...Program was killed in March 2016, will never recover without Jeter....time to go to D 3, vacate the arena etc etc.....lets not lose sight of that....the Emperor has no clothes.....arena food is limited.....we do not have a point guard.....30 people at games.....roster consists of scraps.....does not matter what is done.....talk about JDS....

[BBFran]

How many games have you been to this year, steve?

[Pounce Needs Pals]

Nov 10, 2018 18:32:13 GMT -6 bizzork said:

7 wins, rank of 284, 9th in the Horizon. Average actual attendance 610 per.

Well, I wish you could have coughed up the $130 from $75 you were paying.

[steveisback]

Probably same number as you