Post by Pantherholic on Mar 20, 2017 21:25:34 GMT -6
By now you've probably heard the rumors about Wichita State potentially/probably joining the AAC as a basketball only member. If not, a quick Google search will net you more than enough results. I don't buy the speculation that they'll join as a basketball only member because I can't fathom why the Valley would allow them to stay for everything else. I'm also ignoring the speculation about WSU re-starting their defunct football program because that's more $ than the Koch brothers probably want to donate right now. We'll also ignore the probable scenario of the football program not being profitable like the majority of other programs. Keeping Gregg Marshall happy should be priorities 1-10 for them.
So, like a flashback to 2013 when Creighton left, we're in a potential "where do we stand" situation. Nothing has changed in the HL to assume staying is a good idea and if everyone potentially had an "out", they'd take it in a heartbeat. It's a crapshoot to say where the Valley would go since they have lots of options. Following some message boards from most of the programs, options range from Belmont to Little Rock to the Dakotas to us. The definitive "losers" of the Valley's last expansion were UIC, Valpo & UMKC as they were actually visited but as we know, the rose ultimately went to Loyola. Valley Commissioner Doug Elgin is apparently keeping quiet about the future so really everything is fair game (within reason).
While I don't think we're the strongest candidate by any means, I think we could be a realistic candidate in this scenario - footprint expansion. Here's the current map of the Valley:
Losing WSU will definite hurt the conference's brand. The Shockers leaving will also see Missouri St without a travel partner. As stated before, UMKC was a finalist but was passed over. KC adds the 33rd largest media market & shortens the commute to Springfield to 2.5 hours instead of the 4.5 hours from Springfield to Wichita. Milwaukee adds a travel partner to Loyola as well as the 35th largest market. The ultimate pipe dream for Valley fans is St Louis but they're not leaving the A-10. The next dream would be Belmont who is close enough to Evansville and Nashville adds the 29th largest market too. Unfortunately, I've been seeing that Belmont has also previously rejected the Valley as they wish to remain a big fish in a small pond. I can't verify that but I can't also disregard that sentiment either. I think school #12 will have to be a private school as I don't see the current private schools open to allowing 3 public schools to have the balance of the league be 8-4 public/private. Since STL & Belmont are presumably out, Valpo would be the next in line. No, they don't add a thing in terms of markets but we can agree they're one of the best basketball options available, already in the existing footprint and could be Indiana State's new travel partner.
So the new travel partners would be the following:
Mo St/UMKC
Drake/UNI
SIU/Evansville
IL St/Bradley
IN St/Valpo
Loyola/MKE
Now, other than having a homer perspective on the issue, here's why I think we have a chance:
New market - see above
Natural travel partner - see above
Facilities - '13 was definitely unfortunate timing but we've been back at the Arena for awhile now AND the school has the naming rights. Things are also progressing nicely with the baseball stadium in Franklin which helps show our intent to improve in more than just basketball. Obviously the practice facility has been an issue for the basketball teams but it shows there's intent as well as fundraising to furnish the facility. I don't think plans for the facility even appeared until '14 and can at least be argued/spun that it hasn't happened yet for reasons out of our control.
Now, obviously people are going to point to last season as a deterring factor. While it was a rough year, it's also not a typical year. Between the '07-'08 & '12-'13 seasons, Loyola had ONE winning season. One. For the '11-'12 season, they finished 7-23 with a 1-17 conference record. That was two seasons before the Valley invited them. Let's not forget Loyola had ONE postseason tournament in 30 years. From '86-'14 they had NOTHING.
Attendance? Yep, ours sucked last year. However Loyola averaged 1,800 fans/game this year. For the '14-'15 season, they averaged 1,700 fans/game. Regardless of one's thoughts are of the Braun, this has been a fickle fan base for years. If Lavall wins, more people will come. (Save all comments for Braun to the other thread).
Now obviously I'd like to see our problems resolved as quickly as everyone else. My point is we're not some horrendous choice compared to others. Do the Panthers carry Milwaukee? No. Does UMKC carry Kansas City? No. Does Belmont carry Nashville? Rutgers carry NYC? Detroit Mercy/Oakland carry Detroit? Loyola/UIC carry Chicago? No, no, no and HELL NO! Heck, Green Bay can't draw more than a few thousand per game and they're competing with nothing! Despite this we have a lot of potential for the program and if we can show them our goal, we could be a contender. Loyola essentially got because of a) new market b) commitment to facilities and c) they replaced another private school. Milwaukee can definitely prove a & c and b is showing improvement from '13. I know Loyola faults don't mean we're on par for being a legitimate candidate but I'm saying one can't say we don't stand a chance given what the conference went with the last time.
So, like a flashback to 2013 when Creighton left, we're in a potential "where do we stand" situation. Nothing has changed in the HL to assume staying is a good idea and if everyone potentially had an "out", they'd take it in a heartbeat. It's a crapshoot to say where the Valley would go since they have lots of options. Following some message boards from most of the programs, options range from Belmont to Little Rock to the Dakotas to us. The definitive "losers" of the Valley's last expansion were UIC, Valpo & UMKC as they were actually visited but as we know, the rose ultimately went to Loyola. Valley Commissioner Doug Elgin is apparently keeping quiet about the future so really everything is fair game (within reason).
While I don't think we're the strongest candidate by any means, I think we could be a realistic candidate in this scenario - footprint expansion. Here's the current map of the Valley:
Losing WSU will definite hurt the conference's brand. The Shockers leaving will also see Missouri St without a travel partner. As stated before, UMKC was a finalist but was passed over. KC adds the 33rd largest media market & shortens the commute to Springfield to 2.5 hours instead of the 4.5 hours from Springfield to Wichita. Milwaukee adds a travel partner to Loyola as well as the 35th largest market. The ultimate pipe dream for Valley fans is St Louis but they're not leaving the A-10. The next dream would be Belmont who is close enough to Evansville and Nashville adds the 29th largest market too. Unfortunately, I've been seeing that Belmont has also previously rejected the Valley as they wish to remain a big fish in a small pond. I can't verify that but I can't also disregard that sentiment either. I think school #12 will have to be a private school as I don't see the current private schools open to allowing 3 public schools to have the balance of the league be 8-4 public/private. Since STL & Belmont are presumably out, Valpo would be the next in line. No, they don't add a thing in terms of markets but we can agree they're one of the best basketball options available, already in the existing footprint and could be Indiana State's new travel partner.
So the new travel partners would be the following:
Mo St/UMKC
Drake/UNI
SIU/Evansville
IL St/Bradley
IN St/Valpo
Loyola/MKE
Now, other than having a homer perspective on the issue, here's why I think we have a chance:
New market - see above
Natural travel partner - see above
Facilities - '13 was definitely unfortunate timing but we've been back at the Arena for awhile now AND the school has the naming rights. Things are also progressing nicely with the baseball stadium in Franklin which helps show our intent to improve in more than just basketball. Obviously the practice facility has been an issue for the basketball teams but it shows there's intent as well as fundraising to furnish the facility. I don't think plans for the facility even appeared until '14 and can at least be argued/spun that it hasn't happened yet for reasons out of our control.
Now, obviously people are going to point to last season as a deterring factor. While it was a rough year, it's also not a typical year. Between the '07-'08 & '12-'13 seasons, Loyola had ONE winning season. One. For the '11-'12 season, they finished 7-23 with a 1-17 conference record. That was two seasons before the Valley invited them. Let's not forget Loyola had ONE postseason tournament in 30 years. From '86-'14 they had NOTHING.
Attendance? Yep, ours sucked last year. However Loyola averaged 1,800 fans/game this year. For the '14-'15 season, they averaged 1,700 fans/game. Regardless of one's thoughts are of the Braun, this has been a fickle fan base for years. If Lavall wins, more people will come. (Save all comments for Braun to the other thread).
Now obviously I'd like to see our problems resolved as quickly as everyone else. My point is we're not some horrendous choice compared to others. Do the Panthers carry Milwaukee? No. Does UMKC carry Kansas City? No. Does Belmont carry Nashville? Rutgers carry NYC? Detroit Mercy/Oakland carry Detroit? Loyola/UIC carry Chicago? No, no, no and HELL NO! Heck, Green Bay can't draw more than a few thousand per game and they're competing with nothing! Despite this we have a lot of potential for the program and if we can show them our goal, we could be a contender. Loyola essentially got because of a) new market b) commitment to facilities and c) they replaced another private school. Milwaukee can definitely prove a & c and b is showing improvement from '13. I know Loyola faults don't mean we're on par for being a legitimate candidate but I'm saying one can't say we don't stand a chance given what the conference went with the last time.